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债市利空积聚 保险机构持债意愿整体下降
2017-09-22 07:37:35 中国经济网
展望后续,具体到债市的投资方面,在曲线修复压力以及债市利空因素共同作用下,10年期国债收益率大概率将逐步上行。对于利率产品,券商普遍建议切忌在“鸡肋”行情中激进操作,等待新的超预期因素出现,或者存量逻辑的进一步发酵应是更稳妥的选择。
再就信用产品来看,目前信用债发行人资质分化加剧。尤以产业债为例,受环保督查和供给侧改革出清影响,高等级资质的上游强周期龙头企业盈利改善较好,而民营发行人的资质分化仍在加剧。城投债方面,分化逻辑同样在不同地理区域和业务领域的城投企业身上继续上演,这是“政策规范力度加强”与“城市基建投资收缩”双重压力下的必然结果。毫无疑问,随着城投公司政府融资职能的剥离、去政府化进程的加快,该类举债主体的市场化转型压力正不断增大。
综上考量,券商普遍建议投资者继续维持“高评级、短久期”的选债策略。产业债中,推荐受供给侧改革支持,高等级资质的强周期企业,另可适当选取产能过剩行业中的龙头企业。城投债方面,建议规避外部支持属性较弱的区域低层级城投平台,优先选择经济财政状况较好地区的次龙头平台,以及区域内经济财政状况稍弱但具备唯一性,职能难以被取代的核心龙头平台。
我们认为,现阶段对于城投债发行主体资质的判断,需要在地方财力分析的基础上更多关注企业自身的要素分析,单纯依赖政府兜底的主观预期无差别买债已经成为过去式。简单总结,就是要进一步聚焦发债企业的“职能重要性”、“经营持续及稳定性”以及“投融资行为的合理、合规性”,精耕细作谨防踩雷。
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