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A股缩量整固 机构慎对震荡市

2017-09-20 06:52:09   中国经济网

□本报记者 李良

伴随着国庆长假的临近,A股市场又现谨慎情绪,沪深股指再度高位震荡。对此,多位基金经理在接受中国证券报记者采访时表示,在目前市场环境下,指数出现大幅上涨和大幅下跌的概率都不大,而此前“漂亮50”和周期股的大幅上涨已部分透支了未来,机构之间对后市的博弈会进一步加大。不过,他们也指出,在这种震荡市里,热点切换较为频繁,投资者如果把握得当,也能获得较好的收益。

窄幅波动料持续

在基金经理们看来,指数的窄幅波动会成为近期的常态。

万家基金表示,近期市场新能源行业走强,但热点并没有扩散到其他领域,上周二市场成交规模扩大到7500亿元之后又快速回落,而且8月份陆续公布的经济数据也给市场情绪进一步降温,市场重新进入缩量整固阶段。万家基金认为,仅靠风险偏好支撑而无实际增量资金的市场很难形成进一步上攻。

海富通国策导向基金经理施敏佳指出,展望未来市场,短期内A股市场指数大幅波动的可能性较低,且今年市场出现风格转换的概率也不大。不过,今年以来我国经济整体表现向好,海外经济复苏,出口在人民币大幅增值的情况下仍然取得了6.9%的增速,总体来看市场不必对月度数字做出过度的负面解读。与此同时,随着供给侧改革的推进,对高污染、高耗能的企业实行依法关停等一系列举措,在短时间内会对工业经济增加值产生一定影响,也会导致高频数据表现相对不好。

中欧基金则指出,总体而言,A股市场尤其是创业板向下的空间可能已经较为有限,未来大概率是科技成长股热点不断、各板块轮番上涨的行情。在这种情况下,中欧基金建议投资者可以关注与未来市场风格相契合的基金产品。

市场分歧渐现

在指数维持持续窄幅波动的判断下,市场对于接下来热点变化的方向却产生了一定的分歧。

中欧基金聚焦的是创业板。中欧基金指出,虽然创业板指上周有所下跌,但因为市场所担心的债务危机与创业板问题得到暂时缓和,所以创业板指数调整的幅度有限。而环保限产叠加需求改善,中上游产业环节的利润率上升,银行坏账有所下降,往后一年大概率不会发生大面积的债务危机。同时,在外围科技股的带动下,市场对创业板公司股权重复质抵的问题变得不那么敏感,创业板风险偏好或会持续上升。

万家基金则认为,前期涨幅较小的地产以及基建板块在9月13日开始逐步抬升,低估值蓝筹股再次成为市场关注的焦点。而白酒家电等消费品增速稳健,估值基本合理,如果考虑到明年业绩增长明确以及下半年估值切换,当前依旧有布局价值。万家基金表示,当前市场风格重新审视盈利能力的确定性,宏观经济总体韧性较强,大幅回落的可能性不大,全年增速维持看平的判断。上游企业盈利助推金融行业的业绩改善,而且从估值的角度分析依旧具有配置吸引力。

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