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大商所调整铁矿石期货合约质量标准
2017-09-14 09:47:37 中国经济网
新标准提高交割品质量 总体可供交割量仍然充足
该负责人表示,此次新标准实施后,将为期现货市场带来诸多利好。一是提高铁矿石交割品质量。通过对“硅+铝”以及单硅、单铝指标分别设置上限,使得新标准实施后,符合大商所铁矿石交割标准要求的基本全部是中高铁含量、硅铝等杂质含量在下游钢厂正常使用习惯范围之内、市场供应量稳定连续、市场接受度和流通性好的主流矿种,期货交割品的品质将得到大幅提升。
二是期货价格代表性有所提升。据了解,传统主流矿与新兴主流矿的主要差别在于,后者的硅铝含量偏高。通过对升贴水指标的调整,新标准实施后,由于新标准加大了对硅和铝的扣罚力度,使得不同品质和杂质含量的可交割矿种间期货价差拉大,更加贴近两者在现货的升贴水情况。总体来看,调整后的新标准,将使期货价格盯住基准品的概率提高,从而提高期货价格代表性。
三是期货合约适应性与稳定性有所改善。他表示,无论钢厂利润朝着那个方向变化,新标准都具有良好的适应性。即使后市钢厂利润继续增加,高低品价差继续扩大,由于本次调整分别对单个硅、铝指标增加了上限,因此,期货价格也会始终盯住主流矿。如果后续钢厂利润收缩,钢厂经营策略会从追求高产转向控制成本,对高品矿的倾向性也会下降,导致高、低品矿之间的现货价差会缩小,但由于期货升贴水之间的价差不变,当期货价格超过现货价差时,相当于期货市场对低品矿有一定的惩罚性贴水,此时,期货价格会仍会代表优质高品主流矿。因此,总体看来,无论后市钢厂利润向哪个方向变化,新标准都能较好适应现货市场变化,有利于期货合约稳定。
值得注意的是,新标准推出后,虽然使一部分不符合国家环保和产业结构调整大方向要求的高硅高铝矿种无法交割,但由于同时也纳入了一部分新兴主流矿种,因此,总体可供交割量仍然充足。据测算,可供交割量可达4.55亿吨。
同时,新标准实施后,现货市场中目前仍有15个具备一定规模的矿种可以很便利的进入交割,其中我国年进口量超过3000万吨的有7个,这些矿种分布在澳大利亚、巴西等诸多国家,交割矿种选择的余地较大。此外,最便利交割品种类与数量也将增加。“新标准使各矿种间的期货升贴水更贴近其现货价差,实际上相当于在同等价位上,扩大了便利交割品的矿种选择和可供交割的数量,有利于平稳价格和交割月的基差,提高期货市场服务产业和实体经济能力。”该负责人说。
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