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鸡蛋期货价格走势一波三折 短期步入调整期

2017-09-12 06:51:21   中国经济网

今年以来,国内鸡蛋期货价格走势一波三折。在年初小幅上冲后,鸡蛋期货随即回落,并于4月中旬一度跌破3600元/500千克的点位,创出近一年新低。在低位震荡近3个月后,鸡蛋期价开始大幅拉升,并于8月下旬达到4600元/500千克之上。随后鸡蛋期货开始一波快速下跌,目前鸡蛋期货1801主力合约跌至4200元/500千克左右。

据悉,在7月初至8月中旬,国内鸡蛋主产区的现货价格持续上涨,以基准交割地山东德州地区的鸡蛋现货价格来看,7月初该地区现货报价2元/斤,8月下旬涨至3.82元/斤左右,上涨幅度超出市场预期。这期间,随着现货价格的上涨,鸡蛋期货价格也接连上升。

国泰君安期货分析师刘佳伟表示,“除了鸡蛋现货上涨对期货盘面的带动之外,今年以来市场针对蛋鸡养殖场的环保炒作对期货价格也有所提振。随着市场不时传出部分蛋鸡养殖场被拆迁的消息,市场担忧下半年因为环保因素影响导致鸡蛋供应短缺”。

不过,进入8月下旬之后,由于国内鸡蛋市场供需逐渐趋向平衡,走货变慢且收货变容易,中游贸易商的看涨预期也开始转弱。“参考往年的情况来看,鸡蛋现货价格高点多出现在8月底、9月初,因为气温继续影响蛋鸡产蛋率,学校开学和国庆、中秋双节备货达到高峰,贸易商的库存也将于这一阶段投放。结合8月下旬现货价格走势来看,鸡蛋现货价格季节性上涨或临近尾声,甚至可能季节性高点已经过去。”华泰期货农产品研究员范红军说。

对于近月合约而言,8月下旬以来,鸡蛋期货近月合约价格大幅下跌,目前主力合约价格较8月下旬最高点下跌约8%,近月基差也大幅收窄,目前部分合约已经转为期货贴水现货,这表明期价在经历季节性上涨之后,呈现出回落预期。

中信期货分析师陈静表示,在前期大幅上涨之后,目前鸡蛋现货价格仍处于较高水平,养殖户盈利较好,淘汰老鸡的意向偏低。在鸡蛋需求方面,随着学校备货结束,以及双节临近下游企业节日备货也将逐渐进入尾声,预计鸡蛋主力合约期价或震荡偏弱运行。

范红军也认为,对于鸡蛋1801主力合约而言,考虑到在春节备货之前,需求方面缺乏亮点,供应方面相对不甚明朗,一方面后期气温逐步下降,蛋鸡产蛋率趋于回升;另一方面由于上半年蛋鸡苗销售大幅下滑,后期在产蛋鸡存栏或环比下降。综合来看,现货价格或趋于持续小幅回落,对应远月期价整体或趋于弱势。(经济日报记者 何 川)

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