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资金入市意愿增强 A股料维持强势

2017-09-14 07:37:38   中国经济网

基金频繁调仓

近期A股市场成交量明显放大,显示增量资金开始入场。当前公私募基金在市场上仓位一直保持较高水平,各类基金加减仓动作也变得更频繁。

“我们现在就是以非常高的仓位进行操作,至少从短期看,在市场上赚钱是大概率事件。”深圳一位私募人士表示,据他们了解,近期市场上的私募仓位都非常高。广州一位热衷于参与小票和题材概念股操作的私募人士告诉中国证券报记者,目前基本都保持在八成以上仓位进行波段操作。

对比半年报和一季报私募持仓数据,能看出入驻A股市场的私募家数以及持仓市值均有明显增加,这表明私募入市态度已趋积极。最新调查显示,当前半仓以上(仓位在50%以上)私募机构占比虽较上月略有下滑,但依然接近80%。显然,过去的一个月,私募中高仓位运行状态并未改变,其中有近40%私募仓位在八成以上,仓位在五成到八成的私募机构占比为37.27%(与上月基本一致);仓位在三成到五成的私募机构占比为13.66%,这一比例略有上升;三成仓位以下(含空仓)的私募机构占比9.32%,其中空仓比例为4.97%。

某公募基金投资总监表示,在当前行情下,有一个思路值得关注:未来确实要考虑行业结构变化,或者是公司在行业里面竞争优势的变化导致个股和行业市场表现变化。除消费这些差异比较大的行业,现在很多周期性行业也在发生竞争结构的变化。他认为,不要随意跟风加仓,还是应继续分析行业变化,分析行业里面竞争地位的变化。

从数据来看,部分公募基金已经在近期开始选择减仓。据银河证券数据统计,2017年9月11日的仓位测算结果显示,样本内开放式基金平均仓位由上周的80.64%下降至79.41%。其中股票型基金仓位下降至81.77%。另根据投资类型(只统计股票型和偏股混合型基金)进行测算的结果显示,偏股混合型、平衡混合型基金平均仓位分别由78.18%、64.89%调整至77.05%、64.06%。同时,本周仓位超过90%的基金211只,占样本数量的37%;仓位低于70%的基金174只,占样本数量的30%。

虽然基金仓位在本周有所下降,但据分析,目前公募偏股基金仓位总体仍处于历史中高位水平。而在上周,行业配置方面,食品饮料、交通运输和国防军工三个板块被公募基金主动相对大幅加仓,医药、汽车和非家电逐渐主动减持,与名义调仓基本一致。基金配置比例位居前三的行业是食品饮料、电子元器件和交通运输,配置仓位分别为8.44%、3.91%和3.51%;基金配置比例居后的三个行业是钢铁、综合和通信,配置仓位分别为0.95%、0.85%和0.79%。上周基金行业配置上主要加仓食品饮料、交通运输和国防军工;基金主要减仓医药、汽车和家电三个行业。

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