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私募入市积极:部分机构满仓操作 看好后市行情

2017-09-08 08:32:44   中国经济网

根据公布的最新一周(8月28日-9月1日)的私募业绩数据显示,超7成私募产品赚钱。目前,上证综指突破3300点整数关口,市场交投活跃。在行情向好的背景下,各路资金均已开始积极入市,在大部分私募机构持续加仓的同时,不少私募机构更是满仓运作。

私募入市积极

“我们现在就是以非常高的仓位在进行操作,至少从短期看,从市场上赚钱是大概率事件。”深圳一位私募人士表示,据他们了解,近期市场上的私募仓位都非常高。广州一位热衷于参与小票和题材概念股操作的私募人士告诉中国证券报记者,目前基本都保持在八成以上仓位进行波段操作。

近期A股市场保持强势,成交量明显放大,显示增量资金开始入场。对比半年报和一季报的私募持仓数据,能看出入驻A股市场的私募家数以及持仓市值均有明显增加,这表明私募入市态度已趋积极。

8月份,股票市场在短暂调整后继续高歌猛进,各大指数纷纷刷新本轮反弹以来的新高。过去的一个月,A股市场行情上演剧情逆转,上证指数在月初受阻于3300点重要关口后曾一度大幅下跌近百点,权重股纷纷回调。此后,权重股再次充当“冲关先锋”的角色,在8月中旬重启上涨模式,不仅突破了3300点,甚至距3400点也仅一步之遥。无独有偶,中小创同样在8月表现不俗,分别上涨3.85%和6.51%。其中以科大讯飞为首的人工智能成为8月上涨概念股中的最大亮点。

最新调查显示,当前半仓以上(仓位在50%以上)私募机构占比虽较上月略有下滑,但依然接近80%。显然,过去的一个月,私募中高仓位运行状态并未改变,其中有近40%的私募仓位在八成以上,仓位在五成到八成的私募机构占比为37.27%(与上月基本一致);仓位在三成到五成的私募机构占比为13.66%,这一比例略有上升;三成仓位以下(含空仓)的私募机构占比9.32%,其中空仓比例为4.97%。

看好后市行情

8月份市场围绕3200点至3300点做箱体震荡整理,市场热点聚焦于银行、保险、煤炭等少数板块,沪指月度涨幅2.68%,深成指为2.97%,创业板指涨幅6.51%。整体来看,相对于上半年,8月份的市场表现极为抢眼。

对于9月的市场表现,赛亚资本董事长罗伟冬接受记者采访时预计,9月A股将呈震荡向上走势。“长达18个月的横走平衡市暂时被突破,大盘向上进入新的箱体震荡。目前市场稳定是主基调,建议投资者可以稍微加大投资参与力度,但目标也不要定得太高。”

调查结果显示,44.59%的基金经理选择了中性态度,超四成的受访人对未来一个月行情表示不确定;有52.23%的基金经理对9月A股继续看多,这一比例较上月进一步上升,其中持乐观态度的人数比例增长超过了8%,极度乐观态度的比例上升了1.5%左右。此外,受访基金经理持有悲观/极度悲观态度的比例仅3.18%,这是近三年来的新低。从A股市场趋势预期信心指标来看,私募基金经理对9月A股的看法以乐观情绪为主。

招商证券则表示出了相对谨慎的态度,认为9月市场不具备持续大涨的条件。“一是在三季度经济数据可能超预期后,市场对经济预期开始转向乐观。但四季度后,伴随房地产销售增速回落、房地产等固定资产投资增速回落,经济大概率重新回归下行通道中,期间的预期重新修正会带来一定的风险。二是半年报和三季度业绩预告陆续出炉。由于基数效应,三季度业绩增速将会明显下滑,从四季度开始,由于投资放缓,企业盈利增速将会进入下行周期。三是流动性方面,9月将迎来近2.2万亿元存单到期,同时月底进行MPA考核。而金融监管政策仍在陆续出炉,因此需要关注局部流动性紧张带来的调整。”

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