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增量结构性布局 风格轮转将延续

2017-09-09 07:46:44   中国经济网

下周是股指期货1709合约,以及主要商品期货9月份合约的最后交易周。多头头寸已经获利颇丰,平仓过程实施的卖压不可小觑。股票市场的权重股也将面临获利盘的套现压力,后势走向不容乐观。

切忌追高低吸热点

中国证券报:当前投资者是等待还是布局?哪些品种值得买?

孙建波:近期大盘上涨到目前的点位后,很多个股和板块已经积累了不小的涨幅,这就意味着风险在加大,再大举地介入和布局,并不合适。但是,即使在大盘震荡甚至调整的过程中,也总是会有一些板块和个股有不错的表现,出现结构性的机会。可以控制仓位,适当参与这样的机会。另外,当前创业板和成长股整体上处于相对低位,符合中国经济社会变迁和产业升级大方向的公司,要保持积极布局。

从投资角度来看,也分为长线、中线、短线。作为长线投资,可以布局一些符合经济发展大的方向和趋势,符合国家产业政策的品种。比如大健康产业、人工智能、新能源汽车这几个行业。大健康产业是不受经济周期影响的一个产业,我国人口数量庞大,未来可预见的老龄化严重,都支撑着大健康的发展前景。医药类股,尤其是抗肿瘤类的股票,可以重点关注。新能源汽车、人工智能也是未来几年科技将要爆发的重要领域,代表了人类未来生活和经济活动的重大改变,其中一定会出现伟大的公司。这样的公司,不在乎短线波动的话,完全是可以布局的。

张刚:当前投资者需快速降低仓位至满足申购市值所需即可。避险品种方面,建议选择消费类行业,推荐旅游景点类公司和航空类公司。今年7月份和8月份,正值暑期旅游高峰,但全国各地大面积出现暴雨、洪涝甚至台风、地震等自然灾害,被抑制的旅游需求将有望移至十一黄金周。今年的十一假期和中秋节合并,形成超级假期。而人民币的大幅升值,也促成境外游将实现大幅增长。在国际航线市占率较高的航空公司有望受益。另外,航空公司多数有较大数额的外币贷款,以购买或租赁飞机以增加运营能力。第三季度人民币的大幅升值也有望贡献较多汇兑收益,而在三季报的财务数据中将释放利好效应。

魏颖捷:策略上,对于主板为代表的传统行业,回调仍是较好的配置机会,此类品种基本面逻辑较为确定,过去5年中估值受产能过剩影响一直受到压制,随着盈利能力复苏和行业的集中度提升,资源类品种为代表的周期品种仍是年内的主线。在欧美复苏未出现重大负面影响前,需求和供给的拐点暂时不会出现,市场对于上述品种的估值歧视会逐步修正。而创业板等新兴产业由于仍处于红海竞争状态,只有少部分公司会通过市场化竞争脱颖而出,考验的是选股能力,尤其是在估值并不低的背景下。正如中报中证金公司增持部分创业板的动向来看,此类公司仍处于左侧布局区域,操作上只能选择相关政策较为明确的细分行业,如AI产业链上的设备类、新能源汽车产业链上的材料类企业进行技术面博弈。

(原标题:增量结构性布局 风格轮转将延续)

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