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公募固收投资总监热议流动性风险管理新规:货基收益将走低

2017-09-06 07:07:03   中国经济网

上述华南公募固收投资总监也指出,流动性风险管理新规最根本的方向还是跟国家去杠杆的方向一致,让钱回流银行。“之前短端利率一直下不去、企业成本居高不下,而新规就是要让存款、存单的利率降下来,使得钱慢慢回流银行,这是有利于降成本的。”

除此之外,新规第三十三条还禁止投AA+以下的存单。上述沪上公募固收投资总监表示,这相当于阻断了通过配置低评级银行的存单获取较高收益的机会,同时拉升基金对高等级存单的需求。“高等级存单收益会更低些,从而导致货币基金的收益更低。”

四、多管齐下,降低大额赎回引起的流动性风险

大家可能都还记得,去年底债市曾大幅调整。有业内人士透露,其背后重要一角便是在恐慌与监管预期要求下,银行拥挤赎回货基,引发了流动性风险。

因此在新规中,多项条款和措施都是有针对性地减轻货基大额赎回的压力。

举个例子,新规第二十二条要求,基金管理人可以在特定情形下采取这些辅助措施:延期办理巨额赎回申请;暂停接受赎回申请;延缓支付赎回款项;收取短期赎回费;暂停基金估值;摆动定价;中国证监会认定的其他措施,等等。

所谓摆动定价机制,新规第四十条也进行了解释,是指“当开放式基金遭遇大额申购赎回时,通过调整基金份额净值的方式,将基金调整投资组合的市场冲击成本分配给实际申购、赎回的投资者,从而减少对存量基金份额持有人利益的不利影响,确保投资者的合法权益不受损害并得到公平对待。”

上述大型公募固收投资总监表示,新规采取了多项措施降低大额赎回引起的流动性风险,例如还有第三十一条规定提出的,对前10名份额持有人的份额占比在50%以上,且投资组合中现金、国债、政金债等资产的比例不足10%且偏离度为负时,货基可以对当日单个基金份额持有人超过基金总份额1%的赎回申请强制征收1%的赎回费。“这样一来,可以提高赎回成本,降低机构的赎回热情。”

五、投资者怎么办?

前面说了这么多投资总监们的真实心声,那面对新规的影响,投资者应该怎么做?

济安金信副总经理王群航此前做的两组计算或许可以作为参考:

一是银行人民币存款的基础利率,活期0.35%(若按周计算,平均每周0.0067%)、定期一年1.50%、定期三年2.75%;而根据济安金信基金评价中心的统计,截至8月18日,298只货基“过去一周”平均收益率为0.0727%,225只货币基金“过去一年”的平均收益率为3.22%,126只货币基金“过去三年”的平均收益率为10.32%。

他还举了一个例子——如果一只货币基金的七日年化收益率从4.10%降到了3.90%,收益率相差0.2个百分点,即意味着申购100元的货币市场基金,持有满一年,收益最多会减少0.20元。

这么看来,虽然货币基金的收益率可能会有所降低,但短期之内,普通投资者或许还无需太担心,毕竟和同类型产品比起来,货基的优势还是十分明显。

“无论是短期,还是长期,货币市场基金的收益率都高于银行存款。结合流动性来考虑,定期存款完全无法与货币基金比肩。基于摊余成本法的收益计算方式,以及不断加强监管,货基的风险已经一再降低,因此随着时间的推移,货基还必将会得到越来越多投资者的认可和持有。”王群航表示。

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