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已现边际变化还是短期波动?“新周期”激辩未止

2017-08-28 10:00:47   央广网

陆挺总结道,在讨论短期波动的时候,我们比较确信经济在顶点附近;如果谈趋势的问题,则需保留一份谨慎。

产能周期与“朱格拉周期”

“我们分析的周期叫产能周期,它的维度大约6~11年。对我们投资影响最多的主要是库存周期和产能周期,一个是短周期,一个是中周期,一般来说,一个产能周期包含三个左右的库存周期,库存周期主要影响短期波动,产能周期主要影响中期趋势。”任泽平认为,改革开放以后,大致经历了四轮产能周期。2017 年前后,正站在第五轮产能周期的起点上。

任泽平表示,第三轮产能周期始于2001年前后,在2007年进入下滑期,2008年金融危机本来是应该进行产能出清的,但是因为推出4万亿刺激,所以进一步堆积了产能过剩,产能出清被推迟了。随后2011年进入产能投放尾声,在2012年以后才步入漫长的产能出清。可以看到在2012年到2016年,由于产能过剩、需求低迷,中国经济经历了长达54个月的通缩,所以这时候大量弱势中小企业退出,落后产能淘汰,市场在2012年以后已经自发地开始出清。

同样被业界热议的,还有“朱格拉周期”。

广发证券首席宏观分析师郭磊表示,目前口号化去谈“新周期”是一种概念误导,其实没有什么“新周期”,确切的概念是新一轮“朱格拉周期”。他认为,全面反驳“新周期”是一种逻辑混淆,周期的本意只是一种均值回复。

所谓的“朱格拉周期”,是指设备更替和资本投资驱动周期,时间维度通常在6~11年。郭磊认为,“产能周期”的说法近似正确,但似乎并不完整,因为一轮朱格拉周期触底,变化的不仅仅是产能,而是包括名义增速、产能利用率和微观杠杆率,三者构成一轮ROE 周期和资本开支周期的拆解。

关于朱格拉周期的看法,业界也存在争议,天风证券宏观首席分析师宋雪涛认为,“朱格拉周期”似乎被神化了。

宋雪涛表示,朱格拉周期是一个产业的投资周期,而不是一家企业的商业周期。企业是否开启产能投资需要考虑现有产能、未来需求和并购对扩张的替代性,而不仅仅是集中度提升、产能利用率提升、利润改善。朱格拉周期是个产业问题,产业周期的现实是新旧分化的,宏观层面看朱格拉周期是隔靴搔痒,用十年的朱格拉周期进行短期的择时投资策略更是“用大炮打蚊子”。

宋雪涛还在报告中提到,朱格拉周期本质是产业周期,每次朱格拉周期的开启都对应着一个系统性投资机会。朱格拉周期总会开启,但这个十年的系统性机会不会在地产—基建这些老模式驱动的旧经济上。

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