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上投摩根:周期、金融大旗招展 3300点后A股看多远?

2017-08-25 16:06:23   中国经济网

在8月1日冲击3300点失败之后,8月25日,在周期、金融等板块的拉动下,上证综指成功站上3300点。当日收于3331.52点,涨幅1.83%。

上投摩根基金认为,2017年以来,中国宏观经济增长明显复苏,前两季度的GDP均维持6.9%的同比增长。基础建设投资、工业增长、消费、进出口等经济数据指标均呈现回暖趋势,在经济进入被动补库存阶段后,社会总需求也保持稳定,支撑经济的稳定复苏。

本次拉动大盘冲击3300点的重点板块主要是周期板块和金融板块,这也与经济和市场基本面的情况相符合。

上投摩根基金认为,自供给侧改革及加强环保督查以来,上游原材料的产能受到较大缩减,市场供求关系也发生变化,原材料价格经历了较大涨幅,实体经济也进入被动补库存阶段。二级市场周期板块也获得较大向上动能,包括钢铁、煤炭、有色、化工等周期行业指数今年以来都累积了较大涨幅。未来9-10月又是传统的周期行业补库存旺季,新增需求叠加行业依然紧张的供求关系,中短期内周期板块预计还能维持较强向上趋势。

而在金融板块,上投摩根基金认为,经济增长稳定,整个金融行业的增长较为确定,而较低的估值水平则成为金融板块吸引市场关注的主要原因。

对于未来市场发展,上投摩根基金认为,由于经济需求依然较强,而流动性也不会过于紧张,大盘短期维持较强格局的概率较高。行业上,电子、传媒、有色、煤炭、新能源车、PPP龙头以及部分化工子行业的基本面预期较好,符合增长和估值相匹配的特征,相对估值有望具备上升空间。二季度领涨的白马价值股可能将出现分化,其中业绩确定、估值较低的品种仍会有所表现。

虽然市场短期较为强势,但对于普通投资者而言,通过专业的公募基金产品进行投资可能依然是较好的投资方式。尤其是上半年业绩优异,中长期投资能力凸显的基金产品更有望成为投资者的不错选择。

截至2017年7月31日,上投摩根基金今年以来,共计14只产品净值增长率超过20%。

数据来源:Wind 截至日期:2017年7月31日

而从中长期角度来看,上投摩根基金亦表现出较强的投研能力,旗下9只基金在过去三年内录得80%以上收益。

数据来源:Wind 截至日期:2017年7月31日

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