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明年物价涨幅或高于今年
目前距离年底越来越近,2017年的物价走势也备受关注。由于PPI数据不断向好,这种价格传导很可能将推高明年的CPI。
今年,物价总体上维持了温和上涨的局面,明年物价还会延续这种态势吗?对此,胡敏表示:“受美国加息、人民币贬值压力不断加大等多种国际因素及中国供给侧结构性改革的影响,明年的消费品价格有上行的趋势。”
“从当前数据来看,我国已结束通缩进入通胀的拐点,这个情况我们心理上需要做好准备,尤其要防止资产价格上涨更快的传导到消费品价格上。但是上涨幅度也不会过大,我预计明年的CPI目标可能还会定在3%。”胡敏补充说。
2016年2月以来螺纹钢的价格走势 来源:卓创资讯
苏剑也表示,成本推动是造成今年CPI上涨的主要原因,从钢铁、煤炭等价格趋势可以清晰地看到这种传导,这种传导作用目前还在持续,所以预计明年CPI要高一些,但不会超过3%,应该是在2.4%或2.5%。
不过,中国社科院在2017年《经济蓝皮书》的报告中则预测,虽然通胀压力逐渐显现,2017年CPI仍将处于温和上涨状态,或为2.2%。(中新经纬APP)
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