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侠客岛:不从阿富汗撤军 美国新动作意味着什么?

2017-08-23 07:35:36   中国青年网

苏联撤军

之后的故事我们就熟悉一些了。塔利班包庇“基地”领导人本·拉登的做法,直接诱使美国于2001年10月7日出兵阿富汗,进行名为“持久自由”反恐战争,美国正式成为阿富汗问题的一方;2014年底,北约国际安全援助部队(ISAF)结束了在阿富汗境内的战斗任务,并撤出主要部队,同时保留1.3万名驻军,于2015年1月1日起进行北约“坚定支持”任务,主要培训阿富汗国家安全力量、提供咨询和协助。

之所以不厌其烦地勾勒这段历史,是为了让大家更好地看清阿富汗问题的来龙去脉。彼此冲突的不是两方,而是多方,解决起来当然麻烦。

问题

那么现在的“阿富汗问题”,主要是什么呢?

一言难尽。从2014年阿富汗总统选举开始,阿富汗就一直游走在可能爆发严重族群内乱的边缘,普什图人与非普什图人之间的张力异常明显。最终,美国干预阿富汗大选,组成“民族团结政府”。

但是最基本也最重要的安全问题并未解决。北约撤军后,塔利班获得喘息之机,之后便展开对政府军的反攻;“伊斯兰国”(IS)势力自2014年9月进入阿富汗之后,扩张势头同样迅猛。同时,阿富汗政府的控制力也在下降。

美国阿富汗重建特别监察长季度报告显示,2016年1月底,阿富汗政府仅控制70.5%的国家领土;到5月底,下降为65.6%;今年5月至今,阿富汗政府仅控制或影响407个区县中的59.7%,同比又减少了6%。

国家控制力下降,其他地区就是事实上的恐怖主义控制或者无政府状态。根据联合国驻阿富汗援助团报告,2014年,阿富汗冲突导致10548名平民伤亡,比2013年上涨了22%;2015年,平民伤亡人数再创新高,达11002人;去年,阿富汗则有11418名平民伤亡,是2009年开始该项统计以来的最高值——其中61%的伤亡是由塔利班造成的。

看起来真的是非常非常棘手。那为什么特朗普还决定要继续?

“美军的撤出会给恐怖分子留下真空。”

这是特朗普今天的原话。他说,入主白宫后,才发现问题比他想象的复杂;他的逻辑则是,美国在阿富汗17年的艰苦作战,血不能白流;此前美军从伊拉克撤军导致ISIS坐大,美国不能犯同样的错误;在阿富汗的多个恐怖组织,则让美国和盟友的安全受到威胁。当然,“阿富汗的安全最终应当由阿富汗人承担,美国的支持不是空头支票,不会没有尽头”。

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