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自2008年金融危机以来,全球经济复苏乏力,欧美各国纷纷回归制造业。在这股浪潮中,发展工业机器人成为美国重振制造业的战略途径之一。2011年6月,美国前总统奥巴马宣布启动“先进制造伙伴计划”,明确提出通过发展工业机器人提振美国制造业。根据计划,美将投资28亿美元,重点开发基于移动互联技术的第三代智能机器人。机器人成为美国发展经济的“伙伴”。时至今日,美国在工业领域对机器人的应用在全球处于领先地位。
布鲁金斯学会近期考察了机器人在美国各行各业以及各州、各大城市的分布情况。对于工业机器人,布鲁金斯学会将其定义为“自动控制的、可重复编程的机器”,可以代替人类劳动。目前全美共有大约23万个工业机器人在“服役”,覆盖从汽车焊接到肉类加工的广泛领域。不过工业机器人的最大用户还是汽车行业,占去近半壁江山。研究表明,美国超过一半的工业机器人集中在中西部和南部以密歇根州为首的10个州,汽车行业中的许多知名厂商都在此有生产厂,例如通用、福特、克莱斯勒等汽车集团北美分公司所在的密歇根州就有将近2.8万个机器人,占全美工业机器人总数的12%。其他如俄亥俄州、印第安纳州工厂的机器人使用量也不小,分别占据全美机器人总数的8.7%和8.3%。机器人在这些州的工厂里主要从事燃烧焊接、汽车喷漆、组装产品、装卸材料、包装物品等工作。
再回到机器人“助选”特朗普的话题。布鲁金斯学会的报告称,特朗普在选战中的“根据地”是“铁锈地带”的美国南部和中西部。在这些地区,工业机器人使用量很大,自动化普及的同时,工业机器人也给人们带来了恐惧感。在共和党占有传统优势的“红色州”,机器人与工人的存在比例是每1000名工人对应2.5个机器人;而在民主党占有传统优势的“蓝色州”,机器人与工人的存在比例是每1000名工人对应1.1个机器人。也就是说,“红色州”机器人的普及率是“蓝色州”的两倍多。
这并不是说机器人决定了美国2016年的总统大选结果,但机器人在“红色州”的高普及率从某种程度上造成了部分工人的工作被剥夺。在没有其他一技之长的情况下,这些传统的蓝领工人很难再找到工作,生存状况堪忧。所以当特朗普在这些“红色州”竞选拉票,提出让制造业回归美国、提高白人中产阶级就业的口号时,一下子就能抓住这部分选民的心。从这一角度来看,机器人确实在客观上帮助了特朗普坐上总统宝座。
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