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“死亡税率”之说严重误导公众

2016-12-22 14:44:25   国家税务局

原标题:“死亡税率”引发的税负问题思考

国家税务总局税收科学研究所李万甫

日前,有关媒体相继报道“死亡税率”问题,有关人士认为,“死亡税率――当前经济持续低迷的真实原因”,“税率之重,接近企业的‘死亡线’”,“我国长期实行重税主义的后果,就是经济动力和活力的下降”。归结起来,其核心要义就是:税负过重严重影响企业生存空间,是导致经济下行压力的主要原因。情况果真如此吗?

一、“死亡税率”之说,严重误导了社会公众

源自有关媒体的报道,“当前我国企业实际税费负担接近40%,对企业来说意味着死亡。”或称作“死亡税率”。这一说法的提出,足够吸引社会公众的眼球,激起了社会公众特别是企业界对经济下行压力加大的情绪宣泄,引发社会公众对税负问题的误解,带来一系列负面效应。所谓的“大部分企业利润率都不到10%”与“30-40%的税费负担”存在怎样的内在关联?需审慎对待,尚难以简单评价!至于30-40%的“死亡税率”是“我国当前经济持续低迷的真实原因”这一结论,严重曲解和低估了导致经济下行压力的深层次原因。实际上,形成经济增速下滑的诱因是多方面的,既有体制因素,又有制度因素,也有市场环境变化的因素。如果按照这一逻辑思维,是否可以这样递推出:只要企业税费负担降低了,经济下行压力就会得到遏制。显然,经济运行状态的转变远非这样简单。至于“中国宏观税负与经济增长之间呈负相关关系”。事实上,我国宏观税负近些年来一直稳中有降,特别是一系列减税降负措施的陆续出台,企业的税负大大减轻,但同期经济增长却出现了较大幅度的波动,由最初的两位数的高增长到目前6.7%的增长。可见,简单推论出宏观税负与经济增长之间负相关的结论,是不能成立的。

二、正确看待宏观税负的水平

宏观税负并没有一个统一的口径,通常结合政府收入构成状况,分为大、中、小口径:大口径宏观税负是指政府全部收入占GDP的比重,按照IMF统计口径测算,2012—2015年我国宏观税负接近30%,远低于发达国家平均水平42.8%,也低于发展中国家平均水平33.4%;中口径宏观税负是指税收收入和社会保障缴款之和占GDP比重,按照OECD测算口径,2012-2015年我国宏观税负23.4%,而2014年OECD国家平均水平为35.5%;小口径宏观税负是指税收收入占GDP比重,2012-2015年我国宏观税负18.5%左右,并逐年下降,按照IMF数据测算,2013年发达国家为25.9%,发展中国家为20.4%。

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