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媒体:美舰闯南沙12海里 特朗普南海政策需警惕

2017-05-26 00:55:50   侠客岛

5月25日凌晨,美军派出“杜威”号导弹驱逐舰,再次闯入中国南沙岛礁邻近海域,这次挑战的是美济礁——确切地说,应该是“美济岛”。经过陆域吹填后,它已是中国在南沙最大的实际存在,外界估计已有约6平方公里的陆地。

美方官员已经确认,“杜威”号是在执行“航行自由”行动。因此可以推测,该舰闯入了美济礁的12海里。这也是特朗普上任后、也是美方自去年10月以来的首次“航行自由行动”。

目前看,这又是一次所谓的“无害通过”,在战略和战术上,除增加局势的紧张复杂外,没有任何实质的意义;但其时机的选择、透露的信息,值得中国关注和警惕。

背景

先看时间:白宫为什么现在批准美军行动?

与奥巴马政府不同,特朗普对南海没有“维护规则、秩序和价值观”等方面的原教旨主义兴趣。虽然他在竞选时期多次指责中国,但上台以来,美国在南海的言行都趋向低调。例行演习训练、抵近侦察虽在继续,但曝光度远不如奥巴马时期。

这自然与朝鲜半岛的形势有关。特朗普既已经锁定朝鲜是“最大的麻烦”,又要积极寻求中国的帮助,就不可能在南海过于刺激中国。同时,特朗普务实而精于算计的作风,与此类“航行自由行动”的形式主义,也显得格格不入。

这两大理由决定了,特朗普不太情愿批准在南海的“航行自由行动”。据称,此前美军太平洋总部开展行动的3次提议,都被五角大楼或白宫所拒绝。

然而,在南海问题上,美国的智库、政策官员、军方、战略界等精英层,仍然将南海博弈标定为中美亚太地缘战略竞争的焦点,一副没了南海活不下去的架势,频频发声、搞动作。

这不,5月9日,美国国际问题与战略研究中心刚发布了几百页的题为《反击亚洲的海上胁迫》(Countering Coercion in Maritime Asia)大部头报告,声称中国正在南海、东海采取模糊、非对称和渐进的所谓“灰色地带”(Gray Zone)策略,美国需要全力进行反制。

近期,不少访华的美国专家也私下表示,“南海这事儿依然没完”。岛叔不得不承认,经过奥巴马和希拉里8年的渲染和炒作后,美国精英在南海的偏执和对中国的偏见已经深入骨髓,这病一时半会恐怕是好不了。

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