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■记者 傅苏颖
《证券日报》记者从外汇交易中心获悉,9月27日,人民币对美元汇率中间价报6.6192,较上一个交易日下跌116个基点,创2017年8月29日以来最低,连续三日下跌,累计下跌331个基点。
苏宁金融研究院宏观经济研究中心主任、高级研究员黄志龙昨日对《证券日报》记者表示,人民币对美元汇率出现了连续三日的小幅回落,主要原因有两方面:一是外部因素。美元指数在最近一周从91.84上升到92.99,升值幅度超过了1%,相应的人民币对美元汇率出现了适当的调整;二是上半年特别是人民币汇率形成机制加入逆周期调节因子以来,人民币不但对美元出现显著升值,人民币汇率指数(CFETS)也出现了一定的升值压力,并对出口形成了较大的压力,适当放缓人民币汇率升值的节奏也有一定的合理性。
“前期政策微调释放了监管层不希望人民币持续单边大幅升值的信号,9月11日以来,市场持续处于回调态势。近期走势表明,这一回调态势仍将持续。” 东方金诚研究发展部副总经理王青昨日对《证券日报》记者表示。
对于未来人民币汇率的走势,王青认为,短期来看,人民币汇率走势仍将在很大程度上受美元指数波动影响。但考虑到美联储货币政策收紧节奏整体并未超出市场预期,税改、医改等政策推进依然存在较大不确定性,美元反弹趋势尚未完全确立,美元升值对人民币汇价带来的外部压力可控。国内方面,预计三季度国内经济基本面仍将保持较强韧性,单边贬值预期已基本消散,外汇供求力量趋于均衡,同样不支持人民币对美元继续大幅贬值。由此,不排除短期内人民币汇价出现反弹的可能,年内料将延续双向宽幅波动格局。
黄志龙认为,人民币对美元汇率将保持中短期双向波动、长期稳中走强的基本态势。
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