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人民币兑美元贬值空间有限

2017-09-27 07:52:53   

26日,在岸、离岸人民币兑美元即期汇价双双跌逾百点,且盘中分别跌破6.63、6.62关口。市场人士指出,受美元指数继续反弹影响,人民币兑美元汇率延续了近期持续回调的态势。短期来看,人民币走势仍将随美元指数走势波动,但综合美元反弹趋势尚未完全确立、国内经济基本面韧性较强、中美利差较大等因素来看,人民币兑美元继续贬值空间有限,年内料延续双向波动格局。

即期汇价跌逾百点

26日,人民币兑美元中间价大幅下调131个基点报6.6076,为连续第二日调贬,并创2017年8月30日以来新低。

境内即期市场上,昨日在岸人民币兑美元汇率小幅高开于6.6165元,早盘一度涨逾90基点至6.6113元,不过随即空头发力,午后加速下跌,最终在岸人民币兑美元即期汇率16:30收盘价报6.6305元,为8月28日以来首次收于6.63关口下方,较上一交易日跌100个基点,盘中最低触及6.6328元。

香港市场,离岸人民币兑美元即期汇率也震荡走弱,日内跌幅扩大至近百点,并跌破6.62关口,刷新8月29日以来新低至6.6244元,截至北京时间26日16:30,离岸人民币兑美元汇率下跌118基点报6.6238元,境内外价差倒挂约71基点。

全球汇市方面,继周一大涨0.53%后,周二美元指数延续反弹态势,昨日亚洲交易时段美元指数直线拉升逾10点,刷新8月31日以来新高至92.86,日内涨幅扩大至0.2%;欧元兑美元则短线跳水20点至1.1813,创8月25日以来新低。

双向波动将延续

市场人士指出,近段时间,受美联储缩表靴子落地及年内加息预期升温等因素影响,全球汇率市场继续呈现美强欧弱的态势,人民币兑美元汇率也随之持续回调,不过外汇供求力量整体仍较均衡,市场预期也相对稳定。总体而言,年内美元指数继续反弹的动力仍显不足,人民币兑美元汇率有望延续双向波动的格局。

国金证券表示,9月21日美联储宣布10月正式启动“缩表”,年内加息预期上升,带动美元指数上涨。此外,美元兑日元、兑英镑均有升值;引入“逆周期因子”,单边贬值预期逐渐修复后,外加美联储开启“缩表”带来的美元新一轮走强的预期上升,人民币兑美元下半年将出现双向波动的特征。

申万宏源证券指出,在美联储宣布10月将开启渐进式缩表的背景下,近期人民币汇率整体震荡中小幅走低。但从近期经济数据看,短期内美国通胀仍然难以出现趋势性改善,年内美联储加息仍有掣肘,美元指数低位难上。结合对中美增速差、货币政策周期分化与收敛、中间价形成机制、中国的国际收支结构性改善等人民币汇率驱动因素的分析,人民币汇率在今年年底前仍处于稳中小幅升值的通道,预计人民币兑美元汇率在2017年底小幅升值至6.4左右。

“人民币汇率贬值压力不大,短期或双向波动。”方正证券进一步指出,从根本上看,汇率虽然短期可能受到部分因素干扰而与基本面有所偏离,但在中长期是由经济基本面决定的,因此人民币汇率前景根本上取决于中国经济改革转型前景。

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