新闻 > 经济
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170920/31480960.html
Server: cms-9-53
Date: 2024/12/26 13:47:44

Powered by China
China

期债上涨空间有限

2017-09-20 09:37:09   中国经济网

近期公布的8月经济数据低于预期,投资、消费和出口增速全面下滑,叠加工业增加值增速回落,似乎呈现出供需两弱的格局,市场对经济将趋势性下行的看法再度升温。但我们认为,实际情况并不如表面上的悲观,加之目前仍处于主动补库存周期,我们认为后续月份经济数据将会有所恢复。

投资数据中房地产投资增速持平,制造业投资增速小幅回升,而基建投资增速明显回落。房地产销售增速下行并未传导至地产投资,原因在于房地产库存去化进度较快。经过2016年以来商品房持续去库存,当前住宅商品房待售面积已经回落到了2013年年底水平,即使地产销售增速在下滑,新开工面积依然小于销售面积,使得去库存还在持续,补库存需求和棚改房建设将支撑房地产投资增速不至大幅下滑。

随着企业利润的好转,制造业投资增速自2016年9月以来缓慢回升,不过近两月出现了回落,与工业增加值增速的回落相呼应。受到8月环保检查趋严的影响,黑色、有色、化工、纺织等高污染行业生产增速明显回落,投资增速仍处于低位,产能扩张受到明显抑制。计算机、通信、电气机械、铁路船舶等行业的生产增速有所增长,投资增速仍处高位,汽车制造业投资增速环比改善明显。综合来看,由于工业企业利润仍处于改善周期,产能却处于低位,制造业投资增速仍有进一步改善空间。

8月基建投资下滑幅度最为明显,与建筑业PMI大幅下降相呼应,究其原因应与天气状况有关。但从劳动力需求和市场预期看,建筑业PMI的从业人员指数和业务活动预期指数为54.3%和66%,分别高于上月0.1和0.7个百分点,建筑业用工量保持稳步增长,企业对未来市场发展信心仍然较强。另外,8月固定资产资金来源增速有所提升,国家预算内资金和贷款均有所回升,与财政收入增速较好和信贷数据超预期相吻合。

消费增速下滑主要受到房地产行业相关消费回落影响,家具家电、建筑装潢消费增速都有不同程度回落,食品饮料、烟酒、文化用品等必需品消费也呈现明显下滑,不过总体上消费增速比较平稳,仍维持在10%以上高位。

去年四季度以来,居民收入增速有所回升,实际收入增速今年以来超越了GDP增速,客观上能够促进消费的升级换代和可选消费的增加,对消费增速形成支撑。出口增速的显著下滑与全球经济形势改善相悖。不过自央行9月11日将外汇准备金降至零后,人民币升值趋势被中断,而出口经理人信心指数依然较高,显示企业未来的出口预期仍好。

由于国内经济并没有显著恶化,央行货币政策维持稳健中性。央行公开市场操作中注重预调微调,灵活对冲,但货币市场资金利率中枢仍在上行,表明目前央行货币政策略偏紧。综上所述,债市将难以见到货币政策宽松,利率难以大幅下行,仅存在小幅回落空间。

404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170920/31480960.html
Server: cms-9-53
Date: 2024/12/26 13:47:44

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170920/31480960.html
Server: cms-9-53
Date: 2024/12/26 13:47:44

Powered by China
China

相关阅读

404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170920/31480960.html
Server: cms-9-53
Date: 2024/12/26 13:47:44

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170920/31480960.html
Server: cms-9-53
Date: 2024/12/26 13:47:44

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170920/31480960.html
Server: cms-9-53
Date: 2024/12/26 13:47:44

Powered by China
China
分享到:
0 0
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170920/31480960.html
Server: cms-9-53
Date: 2024/12/26 13:47:44

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170920/31480960.html
Server: cms-9-53
Date: 2024/12/26 13:47:44

Powered by China
China

美图推荐

404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170920/31480960.html
Server: cms-9-53
Date: 2024/12/26 13:47:44

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170920/31480960.html
Server: cms-9-53
Date: 2024/12/26 13:47:44

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170920/31480960.html
Server: cms-9-53
Date: 2024/12/26 13:47:44

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170920/31480960.html
Server: cms-9-53
Date: 2024/12/26 13:47:44

Powered by China
China

为您推荐

加载更多>>
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170920/31480960.html
Server: cms-9-53
Date: 2024/12/26 13:47:44

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170920/31480960.html
Server: cms-9-53
Date: 2024/12/26 13:47:44

Powered by China
China
404 Not Found

404 Not Found

Sorry for the inconvenience.
Please report this message and include the following information to us.
Thank you very much!

URL: http://3g.china.com:8080/act/news/11155042/20170920/31480960.html
Server: cms-9-53
Date: 2024/12/26 13:47:44

Powered by China
China