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短期消费贷违规潜入楼市 九成流向沪粤冀等6地区

2017-09-20 07:22:12   中国经济网

■见习记者 杜雨萌

昨日,易居房地产研究院发布的最新研究报告显示,2017年3月份以来,短期消费贷款同比走势大幅攀升,明显偏离稳中有升的零售额同比,预计新增异常短期消费贷款金额约3700亿元,估计其中至少有3000亿元流向楼市,约占新增短期消费贷款总额30%。

易居研究院研究员王梦雯对《证券日报》记者解释称,其根据人民银行和国家统计局发布的数据,处理得到全国居民短期消费贷款和全国社会消费品零售额的同比增幅。从历史数据来看,两条曲线走势基本保持同步,但2017年3月份以来,短期消费贷款同比走势大幅攀升,明显偏离稳中有升的零售额同比。这说明新增加的这部分贷款的确没有流入社会零售品消费。

值得关注的是,9月初,北京银监局、人民银行营业管理部联合印发通知,要求银行业金融机构针对个人经营性贷款和个人消费贷款开展自查工作,重点检查“房抵贷”等资金违规流入房地产市场的情况。随后,深圳、江苏也跟进严查个人消费贷款流入房地产市场。

“根据以上政策,可以初步判断近几个月来明显攀升的短期消费贷款可能流入了房地产行业。”王梦雯认为,虽然8月份新增短期消费贷款仍同比下行,但环比依旧保持上升态势。而按照社会零售额同比走势估算,3月分以来新增异常短期消费贷款金额约3700亿元,预计至少有3000亿元流向楼市。

该报告进一步指出,根据数据可得性,收集到16个典型地区(城市)今年以来月度新增个人消费贷款走势,这些地区分别是:北京、上海、深圳、青岛、宁波、福建、浙江、江苏、四川、广东、河北、辽宁、内蒙古、青海、山东、甘肃。数据显示,全国多个地区都有消费贷款异常增加现象,其中广东、福建、江苏、上海、四川、河北等6地区的月度新增个人消费贷款在5月份以来都出现明显攀升,按照此前估算的3700亿元新增异常短期消费贷来看,九成新增异常贷款出现在上述6个地区,说明这些区域有消费贷流入楼市现象。

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