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股指中期上行趋势不变

2017-09-20 09:37:09   中国经济网

周二股指集体收跌,8月经济数据干扰市场,周四凌晨美联储公布9月利率决议,或对市场带来一定冲击。中期来看,国内基本面韧性犹在,短期CPI回升,但通胀压力暂无,8月M2跌破9%,未来货币政策大概率不会收紧,预计股指仍处于振荡上行的格局。

伴随着8月经济数据陆续披露,市场对基本面下行的担忧加大。无论是工业增加值,还是投资、消费均不及预期,工业增加值降至6.0%,固定资产投资累计同比从7月8.3%降至7.8%,单月增速大幅下行,社会消费品零售总额从10.4%降至10.1%。

从先行指标PMI以及金融数据来看,需求韧性仍然较强。PMI和新订单指数回升,信贷社融持续超预期,显示企业需求较好。我们认为,短期经济数据波动在所难免,中期经济韧性犹存,不必对基本面过于悲观。

7月底中小盘股票(以创业板为代表)反弹的势头比大盘股(以上证50为代表)更胜一筹,尤其是上周经济数据波动使得周期股出现较大幅度调整,投资者再次掀起市场风格转换的讨论。2010年以来,A股市场曾经历了四次比较明显的风格转换,分别是,第一次:2013年1月—2014年2月,中小盘股票上涨,大盘股下跌。第二次:2014年11月—2015年1月,大盘股强于中小盘股。第三次:2015年1月—2015年6月,大盘股弱于中小盘股。第四次:2016年9月—2017年7月,大盘股上涨,中小盘股票下跌。

通过对这四次市场风格变化的分析,我们发现利率对市场风格的影响不大。2013年中旬流动性紧张,无论10年期国债收益率还是7天质押式回购利率皆一路上行,其间中小盘股票表现较好,而大盘股一路下跌。2014年11月国内进入降息周期,资金利率整体延续下行态势,较低的利率水平一直延续到2015年年底,其间大小盘股票轮番上涨。2017年4月由于金融去杠杆集中推进,无风险利率再次回升,这一次大盘股表现较好,上证50指数屡创新高,而小盘股却一路走低。因此,利率不是影响市场风格的主要因素,而真正的影响因素是盈利趋势。

通过观察创业板和上证50的净利润同比差值可以看出,盈利趋势和市场风格的走势较为一致。2013年一季度中小盘股票占优时,创业板和上证50的净利润同比差值从-27.93%一路上升至2014二季度的8.61%,其间上证50净利润同比从14.11%一路降至9.79%。2016年三季度创业板业绩大幅下滑,创业板和上证50的净利润同比差值从47.58%下滑至2017年二季度的-3.61%,其间大盘股票表现较好。

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