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期指分化 IC强IH弱格局延续

2017-09-14 09:47:42   中国经济网

市场仍处于风险偏好抬升的窗口期

大盘自8月28日逼近3400点之后,已连续在高位横盘振荡12个交易日之久。在“久盘必跌”的市场心理预期下,资金在大盘距离3400点仅一步之遥的敏感点附近呈现出一定的畏高情绪,追涨的意愿明显不高。历次大盘冲关往往均伴随着银行、保险、证券等金融权重股的“搭台唱戏”。当下资金不断在热点之间来回切换,市场的主线不明确。银行板块正经历一波连续的调整,弱势特征延续。保险、证券板块时强时弱,难以形成持续的上攻动能。我们认为,在缺乏权重与主线支撑的背景下,市场或难有更进一步的突破,短期需要谨防市场出现回调。

基本面利好预期下继续支撑股指上行

8月官方制造业PMI指数从上月的51.4%上升至51.7%,明显高于市场预期的51.3%,创下今年以来的次新高水平,表明三季度经济有望延续稳中向好的运行态势。这也再次印证7月宏观经济数据大幅下滑是由于短期非经济因素带来得扰动而并非济景气度出现明显下滑。高频数据跟踪的耗煤量及用电量等指标均表现不弱,同时上游多类大宗商品的涨幅继续扩大,因此判断实体经济动能韧性仍然较强。此外,制造业的价格和生产数据表现不弱,我们认为8月制造业投资会好于7月。地产销售已经开始显现回调压力,较强的拿地和新开工数据保证了地产投资中期不会出现大幅的失速下滑,对经济支撑的力量仍在。

8月以来,人民币汇率出现较大的升值,国内资本外流的压力明显减缓。与此同时,人民币汇率端贬值压力的缓解也为货币政策边际上的进一步宽松打开了空间。此外,央行近期暂停了14天期逆回购投放,重启28天逆回购操作,并且超量续作了MLF。重启28天逆回购投放表明央行对于可能到来的流动性低谷进行了平稳跨季的提前布局,以帮助银行顺利跨过季度MPA考核。超量续作MLF及重启28天逆回购均表明央行释放出维稳跨季资金面的信号,预计未来资金面在短期内无压力。整体而言,接下来较长一段时间内,市场预期都会处于一种比较有利的氛围当中。随着十九大正式召开时间的确定,接下来政策面预计也会处于一个比较平稳的时期。政策短期的“维稳”与“可预见性”使得风险偏好维持高位,进而对股市形成利好。

市场对后市的预期依旧乐观

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