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持仓分析:期指市场观望情绪浓厚

2017-09-14 09:47:41   中国经济网

最近两周沪综指呈现横盘整理,但风格切换明显。IF走势几乎趋同沪指,IH振荡调整,IC振荡上行。虽然本周三盘中振荡加剧,但收盘依旧没有改变IC强IH弱的格局。截至收盘,沪深300、上证50和中证500指数涨跌幅分别为0.12%、-0.18%和0.61%,对应期指下月合约涨跌幅分别为-0.01%、-0.22%和0.54%,主力合约切换后下月合约升贴水分别为-9.4、10.5、45.4点。IH虽然近期持续偏弱,但是升水格局仍然维持,只是升水幅度略微下降,显示IH投资者并没有转悲观。

资金全线减仓。由于最近行情较为纠结,市场观望情绪也有所加重,从最近四个交易日的持仓看,IF和IH减仓较为明显,IF累计减仓1113手,IC减仓1234手,IH只减仓893手。减仓集中出现在本周三,IF减仓845手,IH减仓893手,IC减仓1033手。

统计中金所前20席位数据,IF净空头寸基本未变,多空力量暂时稳定,与IF近期横盘整理的局面一致。IH净空从674缩小为609,也显示IH的空头优势没有扩大。最具亮点的是IC,当月合约从净空257手转变为净多279手。不过,下月合约净空较大,合并计算后净空头寸为1254手。从净空头寸看,IC短期偏多氛围未变,中期存在不确定性。

分析主力席位,IF多头减仓924手,空头减仓1077手,IH多头减仓2054手,空头减仓2182手,IC多头减仓511手,空头减仓965手。数据显示,三大期指多空都明显减仓,空头减仓力度更大,这对维持整体指数偏强有利。不过,IF合约中信期货和五矿期货席位多头减仓力度明显大于空头减仓,暗示短线主板动能不足。IH多头更是出现中信席位减仓530手的大单,显示一些主力有撤离迹象。不过,空头撤离资金也较明显,暂时还只能认定为观望气氛较重。IC资金变动没有那么大,但五矿期货席位多单减仓345手,显示一些投机资金有短线获利了结的需求。

综合分析,期指总持仓全线减仓,使得短期纠结的局面将维持。从净持仓数据看,IC偏多。从主力席位资金变动看,短线做多动能不足。整体分析,可能短线分化的格局还将维持,风格切换还需等待时间。不过,市场随时有打破僵局的可能。

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