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避险情绪骤降 黄金高位回调多头注意风险

2017-09-13 09:31:33   中国经济网

国际现货黄金周一大幅下挫,美市盘中最低下探至1325.96美元/盎司,金价连失1340、1330两大关口,跌幅逾1%,创下自7月7日以来最大单日跌幅。因朝鲜上周末没有进行导弹试验,此外,飓风艾尔玛在佛罗里达州的影响比预期要少得多,市场对更安全的资产,包括黄金的需求也在下降。周二亚盘时段延续隔夜跌势,盘中最低触及1323.33美元/盎司。

短期内黄金进行获利调整,调整幅度很大程度上依赖于美元和债券的走向。朝核危机短时间内不可能消除,黄金的支撑仍在。目前,黄金投机性多仓增幅明显,基金和资金管理人员连续第八周在COMEX上提高了净多头头寸,黄金多仓达到最高水平。多空仓比例超过20,这是近五年没有出现过的情况;累积的多仓提高了金价大幅波动的可能性,如果市场方向改变,投资者会急于退出仓位,价格波动会剧烈。从技术面看,目前黄金的支撑位在1325-1330美元/盎司一带,周一金价已触及此范围,若金价能在此范围内企稳,短期调整过后仍有可能上涨;若下破此位,金价可能会迎来更深一步的调整。

技术图形上,金价仍处于下方日内上升通道的支撑位上,50日均线继续保护金价。在日线级别图上,各技术治标仍处超买区域,当前1325是关键的支撑水位,如果守住则有机会重新走升;一旦失守下方回调的深度可能要有所加大,下一个支撑将会考验1310和1300的支撑强度。为此,多头要注意暂时规避短期黄金高位获利回调的风险。

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