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A股维持震荡格局 静待外储数据

2017-09-07 07:22:03   中国经济网

每经记者 郑步春

本周A股虽然整体上维持强势,但连续三天低开高走,实际上并没有涨多少。截至周三收盘,上证综指涨0.03%至3385.39点,深证综指涨0.37%至1979.53点。此外,中小板、创业板两综指分别涨0.28%、0.97%。

由盘面看,权重股整体低迷,小票特别是创业板个股表现稍好。近期备受关注的次新股表现继续分化,龙头中科信息再度停牌,这可能令不少次新股炒家不知所措。

类似中科信息这样的妖股,在每轮次新股行情中基本上都有。对此我常常感到奇怪,为何总是会有不怕监管的资金呢?想来想去,可能存在这么一种情况,即有集群性资金杀入了次新股,它们需要个标杆。纵然投入到该标竿股的资金挣不了钱,也能通过其他次新股挣钱。因此,投资者不宜以常规思路看待中科信息这类妖股。就绝大多数普通投资者来说,我觉得没必要去凑这热闹,挣这样的钱是比较烫手的。

近日,市场上关于是否降准的讨论比较多,有人支持,也有人反对。支持降准的一方认为,目前央行降准已经具备较好的政策窗口期,人民币汇率趋势性升值、汇率空间足够。反对一方则认为,降准的宽松信号太强,与当前政策总体基调不符,可以用其他信号意义不那么强的工具提供流动性。不过,无论是否支持降准,双方都意识到了商业银行超额准备金率持续下行这一问题。

对此,我的看法很明确,那就是支持降准,因为降准手段最为直接有效。

根据惯例,今日我国可能公布截至8月末的外汇储备数据。个人认为,这个数据将为是否降准提供重要政策参考,投资者理应关注一下。接下来两周,还将有大量8月份经济指标公布,投资者同样应保持关注。

关于大盘,我的基本看法是乐观的,可我担心形成一致预期后的“意外”回杀。由历史经验看,当市场一致看多时,往往就会出现短线回杀,且有可能很猛,一些保守的投资者未必能承受。这样的回杀用不着理由,这就如同过桥,齐步走容易发生意外。

实际上周三已有些震荡苗头,好在“中”字头力挽狂澜。假如日后这样的震荡接二连三,主力未必就能弹压得住,因主力内部也非铁板一块。投资者近期操作应以持股为主,但应注意舆情。一旦发现舆情空前一致看多,保守做法是先抽出部分资金。

笔者已在微信平台开辟专栏,读者可以在每周日至周四晚间通过微信直接查看笔者的最新观点,详情请关注“每经投资宝”微信公众号。

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