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瑞银证券:近期良好的经济数据对股市有推动作用

2017-09-06 22:25:41   中国经济网

经济日报—中国经济网北京9月6日讯 (记者 温济聪)记者从瑞银证券获悉,在今日举行的瑞银证券媒体电话会 - “A股市场第四季度展望”上,瑞银证券中国首席策略分析师高挺博士表示,近期的经济数据,一季度、二季度GDP增速6.9%,其实二季度的数字是明显超出了市场的预期,这个对股市是有推动的,因为这是一个正面的表现。

他说,反映在上市公司这一块儿,盈利增长我们已经看完半年报了,上市公司给出来的业绩也不错,上半年有18%的增长,整体A股,包括银行在内,比一季度22%的增长稍微放缓了一些,但是18%的增长看上去还是非常强的,最近几年,好久没有看到这么强的增长了。利润率改善,ROE提高,从行业层面,或者是上市公司的层面,也对股市起到推动作用。

最近几个月,大家可能都关注到,主要是一些周期性的板块,钢铁、有色、煤炭等等涨得比较多,确实这些公司,因为价格上涨,相对去年来说很多材料价格已经非常高,所以显示出他们的业绩反弹非常强劲,大环境是一个正面的,而且确实就像我刚才说的,股市今年更多的还是反映基本面的改善。

可能我们更关注的是接下去怎么看,到底有什么样的市场环境,哪些可能是推动市场正面或者是负面的因素。

他说,有一个我们的判断,今年上半年比较强的增长,不管是从宏观经济层面,还是从上市公司层面,已经基本上反映在股市的表现当中了。随着下半年,我们很快就要看到9月份的数字了,但是更多关注的是三季度、四季度。接下来增长要放缓,不管是宏观经济的增速,还是上市公司的盈利增速,主要的原因之一,就是去年的基数比较高,在这一轮经济复苏,或者是上市公司盈利的复苏,实际上是从去年下半年开始的,到去年三季度的时候明显盈利就弹起来了,增速也开始增加。基数原因导致我们可以看到同比的数字会放缓,加上刚才说的,其实我们经济这边也有一些放缓,投资领域,包括房地产投资,包括未来的基建投资,基建投资很大程度上取决于政府这边做的各种各样的PPP等等,看上去这段时间势头都有一些回落。

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