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多头人气相对旺盛 A股周一收涨

2017-09-05 07:37:13   中国经济网

本周一 A股上涨,截至收盘,上证综指涨0.37%至3379.58点,深证综指涨0.60%至1968.12点。此外,中小板、创业板两综指分别涨0.64%、1.04%。由盘面看,虽然银行股有所表现,但权重股整体上仍相对低迷。绝大多数小票上涨,但次新股明显较弱。

次新股这波行情,绝对龙头是中科信息,但该股昨日没能封住涨停并放出巨量,这对许多炒家来说不是什么好消息。受此影响,一部分前期涨幅稍大的个股跟随跳水,筹码出现明显松动,有些品种跌幅很大。不过,次新股中某些品种下跌可能另有原因,比如监管层明确定性ICO非法,这显然就会打击部分区块链概念股,其他多少有些关系的板块未来也可能受到一些影响,这其中就有一些次新股。

昨日次新股中共有七只个股跌停,这在近期的行情中是非常罕见的。在此情况下,持有其他次新股的投资者也应该谨慎起来,提防杀跌情绪扩散。由消息面来看,上周五证监会IPO核发数量仅增加了一家,按理说这应该不算什么利空。之前两周次新股已经涨了不少,在此情况下,监管层这个态度应该说是相当克制了,所以次新股周一的走势我认为是有些弱了。

最近讨论ICO的人较多,多数人说这是欺骗,我也很同意这种说法。正如央行等七部门发文所说,代币发行融资本质上是一种未经批准非法公开融资的行为。简单地说,这有些类似于A股IPO,不过ICO募集的是比特币等虚拟货币罢了。

退一步来说,即便ICO有其合理性,个人认为,在现阶段也很难行得通。道理其实也很简单,如果将ICO发行比作A股IPO,A股市场经过二十多年的发展,至今也不能算很完善,更何况ICO这种新兴事物呢?很多人可能连ICO是什么都搞不清楚。另外,一些ICO相关公司的诚信情况也令人不敢恭维。我相信管理层一定是意识到:如果再不及时禁止ICO,那么可能用不了多久就会出大问题。

ICO被禁,这对A股肯定是利好,但利好程度应该有限,投资者对此不必过度反应。

人民币近期走势强劲,且这种走势已经持续了一段时间,许多人民币空头可能已经被“打爆”。这波人民币走势强劲应对A股利好,但该利好同样较温和。

本币币值与股市的关系是很复杂的。个人认为,本币升值利好股市,主要是基于其后续存在“升值预期”,而不是当前“升值本身”。由这波人民币升势来看,其固然能够狠狠地教训投机客,却很难诱发后续持久的升值预期。大家知道,7月经济指标中有不少出现了增速放缓态势,最新公布的8月PMI指数倒是较好,但更多的8月指标还没有公布,投资者不妨等主要指标出来之后,再作进一步的判断。

综合各方面因素,大盘本周一收涨,说明多头人气仍相对旺盛。

不过,个人认为,接下来大盘大概率将维持震荡格局。因此,涨时投资者不宜看得过高,跌时也不必太过悲观,可以适度持仓并调整持仓结构,抛出积累涨幅较大个股,换入有补涨空间的品种。今年的行情比较难做,在各板块间切换才可能获取更大收益,这对投资者个人的操作水平有较高要求。

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