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缩量新高存隐忧 回调渐行渐近
2017-09-06 08:01:49 中国经济网
在短期均线支撑下大盘继续震荡走高,本轮反弹新高再度被刷新。截至5日收盘,沪指报收3384.32点,上涨0.14%;深成指报收10986.95点,上涨0.22%;创业板指报收1885.16点,上涨0.08%。两市成交量开始萎缩。
盘面上,保险、预高送转、锂电池等板块涨幅居前。钢铁、船舶、电信运营等板块则处在板块跌幅榜前列。个股方面,虽然大盘延续反弹格局,但个股分化仍在加剧,下跌个股家数开始多于上涨。两市涨停个股也进一步下滑至32只,同时有6股跌停。
可以看到,次新股在前一交易日剧烈分化后,周二仍出现一定反复,涨跌停互现。在中航证券看来,次新股反复属于正常的状态,回想起近两年次新股的每一次波段炒作,在高位时都会出现不同程度的反复,那么对于当下的次新股就比较容易理解。对于涨幅非常大的高位次新股,希望投资者要谨慎对待,考量一下风险收益比再做交易决定。
从市场走势来看,沪指在站上3300点以来,成交量便出现了一个量级的放大,场内资金活动度升高,场外资金有流入现象。银河证券指出,一方面近期两市成交量已恢复至5000亿以上,场外资金呈回流态势,或将推动行情向纵深发展。中长期来看,流动性和金融监管最紧的时候大概率已经过去,半年行情预计会好于上半年。“短期来看,市场量价背离,回调或已渐行渐近。”接受记者采访的券商分析师表示:“就指数运行来看,目前各大指数保持震荡反弹格局,促使市场热点快速轮换,市场机会并不容易把握,赚钱效应恢复缓慢。就市场走势来看,两市在短期均线支撑下持续震荡反弹,但可以看到的是,成交量在周二出现明显萎缩,资金流入已明显放缓。短期大盘或存在回调风险,第一是市场量价已经背离,刷新新高后成交量出现明显萎缩;第二是下方缺口并未在之前回调中回补;第三,个股热度已开始下降,大盘红盘背后个股下跌家数大幅增加。综上所述,大盘反弹已经强弩之末,回调或将随时展开。”
巨丰投顾也表示,沪指缩量创反弹新高,短期动能有所衰减,预示3400点附近或有震荡,适当谨慎。总体上看,大盘连续上行创反弹新高后,目前四大指数已经悉数反弹新高,但增量资金介入力度有限,指数上行中出现缩量,继续上行的空间逐步缩小。操作层面上,这里是不能盲目追涨的,但盘中个股表现活跃,说明操作性还是比较强。大盘在3400点区域震荡的时间越长,个股的可操作性越强,赚钱效应也就越强。而一旦出现快速拉升或者急速回调,都不利于个股的把握。
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