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“周期+金融”双轮驱动 两融余额创今年新高

2017-09-05 07:51:56   中国经济网

大盘站上3300点后,上周A股在该整数平台连续发威,沪综指一度改写20个月新高,创业板指也在4个月高位上继续向1900点发起攻势。在宏观经济保持平稳,央行货币政策基调不变的氛围中,随着投资者风险偏好显著攀升,增量资金开始流入A股,令两市成交创出今年以来小高峰。两融资金是市场重要的高风险偏好投资,数据显示,最近5个交易日来,两融余额连上台阶,目前已经逼近9500亿元,为年内最高水平。

两融的新高之旅

截至9月1日收盘,两市融资融券余额实现9477.66亿元,再度刷新年内新高。其中融资余额9429.73亿元,融券余额47.92亿元。

自8月17日突破9200亿元起,两融余额上升节奏明显加快,近期从9300亿元迈上9400亿元台阶只耗费短短5个交易日。并且,在8月31日两融余额已经创出今年以来新高纪录的基础上,9月1日再接再厉,将新高之旅演绎的风生水起。具体来看,当天市场融资净买入额为12.91亿元,融券净卖出额为0.64亿元。

自此轮周期行情启动以来,两融资金与A股走势基本呈现正相关。特别当前两融资金在A股话语权不断提升,存量博弈格局下,融资客布局偏好对指数走势、市场风格的影响力更胜从前。

8月25日,沪综指以一根放量长阳收复3300点关口,之后5个交易日内指数接连突破前高,展现出良好的上攻态势,同期市场交投活跃,两市成交额区间放大态势明显,与两融余额上涨基本保持统一步调,显示两融资金对行情的突破功不可没。

在此期间,机构两融资金参与行情的热情也被点燃。根据数据,8月28日-9月1日期间,21只两融ETF中有16只出现融资净买入,华安黄金ETF、华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF、华夏上证50ETF净买入额金额最高,分别为4.27亿元、2.51亿元和1.60亿元。由此,市场融资买入额也从前期日均400亿元迅速攀升至600亿元左右。上周市场融券余额也从周初的51.16亿元下滑至47.92亿元。

最爱“周期+金融”

个股层面,上周市场有570只股票获得融资净流入,占比为60%。其中净买入额超过1亿元的股票有67只,净买入额超过2亿元的股票有27只,其中最为靠前的是方大炭素、中国银河、中国建筑、华泰证券和格力电器,分别为7.76亿元、7.74亿元、6.53亿元、6.18亿元和4.99亿元。而排位前二十的股票中,绝大多数为资源品和金融股。

行业两融方面,28个申万一级行业中,上周获得融资净买入的板块有26个,轻工制造和国防军工是仅有的两个净流出板块,具体金额为1057.50万元和3.76亿元。净流入板块中,非银金融、有色金属、化工、电子、银行各自获得42.30亿元、27.81亿元、12.61亿元、12.43亿元、11.63亿元,排位居前;而交融运输、钢铁、采掘板块也表现不俗,上周分别获得10.83亿元、10.59亿元和9.02亿元融资净流入。

以上8大板块中,除采掘外,其余区间净流入均在10亿元以上,是当前市场中无可争辩的“吸金神器”。这表明,尽管8月期间周期主线略显模糊,但融资客依旧看好下半年资源品行情;同时,无论历史纵向比较还是行业横向比较,目前银行板块都处于估值底部区间,修复潜力充沛。前期伴随“国家队”二季度入驻多家证券公司十大股东消息发酵,券商股曾掀起过一轮涨停潮。背靠“国家队”这棵大树,两融资金对券商行情依旧充满期待。

数据还显示,上周涨幅前三的行业板块分别是钢铁、有色金属和采掘,与融资客前期布局不谋而合。在两融杠杆资金和投资收益持续正反馈的作用下,分析人士预计,随着两融市场多头格局的延续,两融余额有望继续向上攀升,从而令周期+金融板块交替轮动,继续营造良好的赚钱效应。

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