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高位回调引担忧 发达股基暂“失血”

2017-09-04 08:00:52   中国经济网

上周欧洲股市从高位回调引发投资者担忧,基金流向监测机构EPFR最新数据显示,上周欧洲股票基金出现今年2月以来最高金额的资金净赎回,同时是今年3月开始的首次连续两周资金净流出。发达市场股票基金则在过去10周内首次遭遇资金赎回。

欧洲股基“失血”

EPFR数据显示,在截至8月30日的当周,该机构监测的全球股票基金吸引到16亿美元资金净流入,全球债券基金吸引到80亿美元,而全球货币市场基金遭遇超过170亿美元资金赎回。

分地区来看,在过去7周内,新兴市场债券基金第六次吸引到超过10亿美元资金净流入。而受机构投资者助推,新兴市场股票基金吸引到的资金量继续反弹。然而发达市场股票基金则在过去10周内首次遭遇资金赎回。日本股票基金连续第7周吸引到资金净流入,但欧洲股票基金的资金赎回额触及2月末以来最多,也是3月中旬以来首次出现连续两周资金净流出的情况。

路透最新报告也显示,欧洲基金一方面担忧全球政局,另一方面又因各央行对超宽松信贷政策的承诺而感到安心。这些基金8月债券持仓增至九个月最高水平,不过欧元大涨在一定程度上削弱了欧元区股票的吸引力。

路透对16家欧洲大陆基金的月度调查显示,全球股票整体配置比例稳定在42.6%,接近去年11月特朗普当选美国总统以来的最低点。不过债券持仓比例升至42.2%,为11月以来最高,现金持有比例也小幅上升至8.4%,为四个月新高。股票估值偏高以及地缘紧张局势,令市场对股票的热情下降,尽管有明显迹象显示,欧洲、美国和日本的央行不急于结束刺激计划。

欧股前景难料

欧洲股市今年累计上涨3%,但在8月连续第三个月下跌。路透调查还指出,欧洲基金抢进债券是为了寻求避险,也因为欧洲央行恢复鸽派立场,可能进一步压低收益率。该行6月底的评论曾导致市场猜测,其可能很快开始撤回每月600亿欧元的刺激举措。多数受访者称仍偏看多欧股,85%的受访者预期未来几个月市场将创新高。但多数人也警告称欧元可能构成问题。

分析人士指出,近期数据强劲表明欧元区经济正继续加速复苏,同时政策环境也构成支撑,立场宽松的央行加上强劲的企业获利动能,支撑了欧元区风险资产的吸引力。但欧元近来的涨势对股市的优异表现将是阻力。

彭博分析师指出,欧元走强还会令欧元区通胀放缓,因而可能令欧洲央行不会直接缩减刺激措施,从而提振欧元区股市。如果经济继续上行,欧洲股市或仍有进一步上涨的空间。

国际三大评级机构之一穆迪最新发布的报告则指出,随着区内主要经济体增长加速,欧元区未来两年的经济增速或高于潜在水平。具体而言,穆迪将欧元区今年和明年的GDP增速预期均提升0.3个百分点,分别为2.1%、1.9%。

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