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A股持续走强仍存隐忧

2017-09-04 08:46:04   中国经济网

从近期市场表现看,幸福来得很突然,大小盘联袂上攻,指数突破股市异常波动以来多个重要高点的强压力线,上证综指放量站上3300点重要心理关口。上周四公布的PMI为51.7%,为年内次高点,比上月上升0.3个百分点,高于去年同期1.3个百分点,制造业总体保持稳中向好的发展态势,经济韧性仍然较强。目前不论基本面还是技术面,叠加外围市场靓丽表现,国内人民币持续走强,重要会议前期等等因素对情绪的提振,都有助于市场延续强势的表现。

但从细项研究分析A股持续强势的基础或仍存隐忧。在成本增速持续快于价格增速的背景下,近期经济的回暖从“质”(盈利)的角度看整体似乎并没有那么“乐观”。结合截至上周三的上市公司中报看,不论全部A股,剔除金融的A股,中小板,创业板的归母净利润增速均较一季度有所下滑。

后期盈利对市场的边际推动力有所减弱,但工业企业盈利增速处于2012年以来的高位对市场将形成强力的支撑。从行业角度看,偏上游的行业价格大幅上涨,加大中、下游行业成本压力拖累相关行业业绩表现,数据显示以中、下游行业为主的制造业盈利增长明显弱于偏上游行业。A股市场板块的表现也反映出投资者对于中、下游行业盈利增长的担忧,WIND行业分类中的材料和能源等偏上游板块表现强势,但WIND行业分类中的偏中游的工业指数明显相对弱势。此外,A股市场行业表现也似乎难以找到目前关于“新周期”的证据,板块中的重要下游汽车、房地产、商业贸易的走势明显相对弱势,印证目前下游需求难言强劲,偏上游资源品价格的上涨或更多是由于供给侧结构性改革以及强力环保督查下供给端收缩的原因。

对后期的市场走势,向好的经济态势(高位增长的企业盈利状况)依然将支撑大盘的强势格局,但盈利的边际推动力呈减弱态势叠加利率水平维持易上难下的格局(货币政策稳健,PPI持续高位)或将对市场的上行速度有一定的制约。后期市场或将维持2638点反弹以来震荡攀升的格局,市场情绪的变化短期或对大盘的走势产生较大的影响。

(上海证券)

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