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业绩暴涨的周期股怎样分红更合适

2017-09-04 07:45:56   中国经济网

煤炭、有色等周期股今年上半年业绩暴涨,赚钱后这些公司年底将给出怎样的分红方案也备受市场关注。本栏认为,业绩暴涨的周期股分红不应走极端,分红比例可以适当提高,但不能过于土豪,毕竟周期股的业绩并不稳定。

周期股在政策利好的影响下赚到了好多钱,这肯定是好事,但是赚钱之后,也有了新的问题,即这些利润究竟应该如何使用,是大比例分给投资者,还是留做公司继续发展,这个问题肯定因公司而异。不过,本栏认为,突然增加的利润应该给投资者分红,但也不宜一下分太多。

什么样的现金分红最受投资者欢迎?可以看看工商银行的分红方式,一直坚持长期稳定的现金分红方式,这样对于长期投资者获取稳定收益很有好处,也是长期投资者最喜欢的现金分红方式。

当然,工商银行的经营状况是非常稳定的,具有长期稳定分红的天然优势。但是周期股可能有些年头赚钱特别多,有些年头的业绩就不太好,甚至还有可能出现亏损。但是周期股也应该努力实现现金分红的稳定增长。具体的办法是要评估一下这次的景气周期能够维持多久,景气度回落之后坚持到下一次景气需要多久,这样就能计算出一个合适的现金分红金额,做到用周期景气时期的高利润弥补周期不景气时候的利润不足,以实现投资者每年获得稳定增长的现金分红收入。

所以本栏认为,周期股赚钱之后不分红肯定不合适,但是像中国神华那样的“土豪式”分红也不合适。因为脉冲式的高额分红并不利于长期投资者合理规划自己的收入与支出。

A股上市公司也有自身的特点,不能仅仅满足长期投资者需要,还得考虑二级市场散户投资者的感受。本栏建议,对于业绩突然增长的周期股,可以采用现金分红外加股票分红的方式来满足长期投资者和阶段投资者的需要,例如上市公司计划每股分红0.5元,那么可以再增加一个每10股送3股的方案,这样就能满足大多数投资者的需要。

本栏特别反对周期类上市公司利用突然的利润提升大肆催涨股价的行为,因为过高的股价很容易诱发长线投资者的退场,这对于公司股价的稳定增长并没有好处,一旦引发长期投资者甚至大型股东离场,对于公司的生产经营活动也不是好事。

当然,想让上市公司刻意压制股价上涨既有困难也不合人情,但本栏认为,至少上市公司的利润分配方案不能再起到推波助澜的作用,故现金分红的数量要适度,股票红利的数量也要适度,持续稳定的现金分红,才是成熟股市上市公司的做法。

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