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【编者按】7月15日全国金融工作会议闭幕后,人民日报发表评论员文章称,防范金融风险要“既防‘黑天鹅’,也防‘灰犀牛’”。之后,在7月27日的国新办新闻发布会上,中财办一局局长王志军首度对“灰犀牛”做出了中国官方解读:“灰犀牛”包括影子银行、房地产泡沫、国有企业高杠杆、地方债务、违法违规集资等风险隐患。
“灰犀牛”一词最早源自美国学者米歇尔·渥克2016年出版的《灰犀牛》一书,指发生概率很大、冲击力极强的风险。准确判断风险隐患亦是保障金融安全的前提。因此,中财办提出的五只“灰犀牛”可视为未来一段时期中国防范化解金融风险、维护国家金融安全的重要领域。渥克在接受澎湃新闻记者专访时也表示,中国政府现在采取行动是很明智的。
这五只灰犀牛从何而来,现状如何,又该如何化解其风险冲击?就这些问题,澎湃新闻分别约请对影子银行、房地产泡沫、国有企业高杠杆、地方债务、违法违规集资等领域有深刻研究的多位专家学者撰稿,以供读者和决策部门参考。
相比1997年第一次全国金融工作会议对金融的明确——“金融是现代经济的核心”和“保证金融安全、高效、稳健运行,是国民经济持续快速健康发展的基本条件”;今年7月份召开的第五次全国金融工作会议则将定位做了进一步提升,“金融是国家重要的核心竞争力”、“金融是实体经济的血脉”、“金融安全是国家安全的重要组成部分”、“防止发生系统性金融风险是金融工作的永恒主题”。仅仅从措辞变化上,就能直观感受出“防范金融风险”是今后一段时期金融领域的重中之重。而本次危机以来,包括“钱荒”、“股灾”、“债灾”和“汇动”等在内的金融市场的多次大幅波动,也让我们对金融风险的认知从危机初期的防范“黑天鹅”事件意外冲击,逐渐转变为“黑天鹅”和“灰犀牛”均可能冲击金融风险底线。最近被公开点名的灰犀牛有五只,分别是影子银行、房地产泡沫、国有企业高杠杆、地方债务、违法违规集资,虽然他们都是近年来老生常谈的问题,但之所以又被额外贴上“灰犀牛”的新标签,反映出决策层对这些潜在风险担忧的上升。
而如果仔细分析这五只牛,虽然从逻辑上,它们几乎是并列关系,但从实际情况来看,地方债务风险却是其他四类风险的源头,因为如果没有危机初期地方债务的快速扩张,那么在“经济刺激一揽子计划”结束后,就不会出现地方债务融资巨大缺口及如何续接的问题,这个缺口的填补则是影子银行之所以井喷式发展的一个重要原因,影子银行又是房地产行业、高杠杆企业获取融资的重要渠道,同时一些因影子银行而兴起的影子机构和平台开始敢肆意吸纳社会资金,最终演变成违法违规集资问题。
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