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展望2017年:推进供给侧改革中的经济形势

2016-12-20 17:45:55   

核心提示:2017年的改革,将在“供给侧结构性改革”战略方针指导下,在财税、金融、简政、国企、养老等相关的制度创新重点改革领域积极推进,除继续着力去产能、去杠杆、去库存、降成本、补短板之外,还将需要在优化基础资源、能源产品的比价关系和价格形成机制,建立房地产业健康发展长效机制,形成有效防范系统性风险的地方政府债务运行机制等方面有所作为。

2016年的宏观经济运行,是2011年中国经济持续下行以来终于体现出有可能出现阶段性探底的一年。自一季度开始,连续三个季度龙头指标GDP报出6.7%的增长率,第四季度很有可能还是6.7%左右,一个年度“小平台”的表现为多年来绝无仅有。结合自2015年下半年以来各项主要经济指标演变的分析,我认为可以谨慎乐观地重复我在2016年一季度时已提出的粗线条预测判断:2011年以来的中国经济下行中,有望在2017年完成较明显的探底。紧跟着我们应当力求实现经济的企稳,以对接一个时间越长越好的中高速(6.5%-7%,或6.5%左右,或7%左右)的增长平台,关键是要使这一平台期的中国经济具备结构优化、发展方式向集约化加快转变的“升级版”特征。

在宏观调控方面,贯彻中央经济工作会议精神,需继续实行积极的财政政策,力求继续降低企业税费负担,保持一定水平的赤字率和积极稳妥运用政府债务手段与相关政策工具,在适度扩大内需的同时着重优化财政支出结构,保障民生兜底需要,促进经济结构调整;货币政策方面,应保持必要的稳健中性,适当处理“相机抉择”的工具组合,适应货币供应方式新变化,注意防范风险。财政、金融都需注重“寓调控于改革”,大力推进PPT等创新机制的构建与发展,支持稳增长、调结构、惠民生、护生态等多重目标的实现。在新的一年,保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定,坚持扩大开放,稳定民营企业家信心,振兴实体经济,促进房地产市场平稳健康发展等,也将是管理当局工作与政策调控的重点。

为切实提高经济发展的质量与效益,我们必须在十八大以来党中央历届全会形成的大政方针和此次中央经济工作会议精神指导下,按照“四个全面”战略布局推进供给侧结构性改革,实现经济发展动力的转型升级和加快发展方式转变,以创新发展为第一动力,带出协调、绿色、开放发展新局面,有效化解国民经济中的深层结构矛盾,达到供给体系质量和效率的有效提升和落实于全体社会成员的共享发展。

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