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刚刚闭幕的中央经济工作会议进一步强调要坚持稳中求进的工作总基调,并将之上升为治国理政的重要原则和做好经济工作的方法论。坚持稳中求进工作总基调,体现了以习近平同志为核心的党中央在复杂局面下驾驭经济发展的理念和方法创新。贯彻稳中求进工作总基调,认识“稳”的方向和重点,把握“进”的领域和任务,在把握好度的前提下奋发有为,是巩固经济趋稳向好基本面、开创发展新局面的基本要求。
充分认识贯彻稳中求进工作总基调的重要意义
明年是实施“十三五”规划的重要一年和推进供给侧结构性改革的深化之年,还将召开党的十九大。贯彻稳中求进工作总基调,对于应对复杂变化的内外部环境、更好适应和引领经济发展新常态、深入推进供给侧结构性改革等,都具有特别重要的意义。
稳中求进才能从容不迫应对内外部环境的复杂变化。从外部看,世界经济深度调整,国际政治环境复杂变化对经济的影响增大。美国新政府上台后内外政策将会调整,德、法等主要国家进入大选周期,加之难民事件和英国脱欧的后续发酵,增大了全球经济复苏进程的不确定性。美联储利率调整的外溢效应将继续影响国际金融市场,持续多年的低利率如果出现逆向调整还可能引发大规模跨境资本流动。从国内看,今年以来我国经济缓中趋稳、稳中向好,经济运行保持在合理区间,质量和效益提高,服务业占比上升,消费对经济增长的贡献提高,创新的支撑作用增强,经济由降转稳的条件逐步具备。但也应看到,经济增长内生动力仍然不足,中低端产能过剩和需求结构升级矛盾突出,金融风险有所积聚,部分地区困难增多。在这种情况下,最需要的就是保持战略定力,坚定信心,从容不迫应对内外部环境的复杂变化,保持宏观经济政策稳定性和连续性,增强针对性和有效性,稳定经济运行大局,稳定市场主体预期,避免经济出现大的波动,促进经济筑底企稳,促进经济平稳健康发展和社会和谐稳定。
稳中求进才能持之以恒适应和引领经济发展新常态。我国经济发展进入新常态,在增速换挡过程中实现结构调整和动力转换将是一个艰难复杂的过程,不可能一蹴而就。2008年国际金融危机爆发后,世界经济进入长周期调整阶段,目前仍处在深度调整中,短期内难以摆脱低增长困境。我国经济在经过多年快速增长后,主要经济变量关系发生深刻变化,新常态的特征更加明显,投资和工业对经济增长的贡献减弱,消费和服务业的贡献提高。新动力加快成长,但规模总体偏小,旧动力“唱主角”的格局尚未改变,新旧动力接续将是一个长期过程。在这个阶段,工作重心要从拼速度转向提质量、从铺摊子转向上台阶、从要素驱动转向创新驱动。因此,要转变急于求成的思想观念和操之过急的工作方法,发扬钉钉子精神,一步一个脚印向前迈进。
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