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农业供给侧改革 会否催生农产品大行情?

2016-12-23 09:42:44   

中央农村工作会议提出,要深入推进农业供给侧结构性改革。围绕供给侧改革这根主线,农业部表示,2017年将继续调减玉米;大力稳生猪、兴奶业;推进渔业减量增收和资源养护等。在这些举措影响下的农产品市场将如何演绎?会否复制煤钢期货行情?

不会复制工业领域供给侧改革行情

“和工业领域的供给侧改革不一样,农业供给侧改革对农产品市场影响偏中性。”善境投资管理有限责任公司总经理吴洪涛对上证报记者直言。

他认为,粮食属于双刃剑,价格太低会影响农民收入,价格太高会推高农副产品价格,增加通胀风险。所以,农业供给侧改革更实质性的影响要看后期是否有更针对性的举措出台。另外,目前货币环境与之前工业供给侧改革举措刚推出时有所不同,流动性趋紧,这两天农产品价格表现整体偏疲软正是市场预期的集中表现。

文华财经统计显示,2016年文华农产品指数上涨15.29%,工业品指数则上涨60.10%。相比工业品的大涨行情,农产品的表现相对温和。

玉米、小麦等商品具有想象空间

不过,多位受访人士对记者表示,随着农业供给侧结构性改革深入推进,玉米、小麦等商品仍具有想象空间。

上海步耘投资总经理时岩就坚定长期看好玉米。他对记者表示,据国家规划,在2016年籽粒玉米调减约3000万亩的基础上,2017年玉米面积将再调减1000万亩,但由于今年玉米价格低迷,大豆价格高企,实际缩减面积很可能超过1000万亩,再加上玉米下游的饲料需求、深加工需求持续看好,2017年国内玉米市场有望扭转增库存局面,中国玉米价格底部将逐步显现。

中大期货副总经理景川也对记者表示,结合2017年农业重点工作,农业供给侧结构性改革将明显利多玉米及玉米淀粉,利多蛋白料。

他分析,按照规划,国家明年将继续调减“镰刀弯”等非优势产区玉米1000万亩,改种大豆、马铃薯等,一些区域可能粮草轮作或粮改饲,这意味着玉米供应总量减少,将利多玉米及玉米淀粉,而国产大豆种植面积增加,则对豆一构成利空。此外,生猪养殖规模化、集中化,有利于增加饲料消费,水产养殖调结构调整则可能对菜粕消费有影响。

农产品价格市场化遐想

根据中央农村工作会议精神,推进农业供给侧结构性改革,一大重点内容是推进粮食等重要农产品价格形成机制和收储制度改革,深化农村产权制度改革。

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