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事实上,对万达来说,站在财务的角度分析,出售资产后负债率下降,在改善了企业债务结构的同时,也减少了企业的融资成本,提高了企业的盈利水平,应当是好事,是风险降低的表现。同时,按照万达此前提出的走轻资产之路的目标,出售酒店和文旅项目,也能使企业的资产结构更为轻盈,更加深度地“去房地产化”,从而达到促进企业结构转型的目标,并增加万达商业IPO过会的筹码。毫无疑问,也是风险降低、盈利能力增强的表现,为什么在标普和穆迪的眼里,反而风险增强、评级下降了呢?
值得注意的是,按照万达集团披露的数据,2014年,万达商业营业额1078.71亿,净利润248.39亿。2015年,万达商业营业额1242.03亿,同比增长15.14%;净利润299.71亿,同比增长20.66%。2016年上半年,万达商业营业额376.35亿,同比增长21.82%;净利润61.75亿,同比增长18.48%。也就是说,万达的盈利能力是逐年提升、逐年增强的,是积极向上的表现,而不是风险扩大。在万达商业选择IPO的敏感时期,标普和穆迪选择下调万达商业评级的行为,到底是什么用心,值得关注。
显然,标普这种“刻舟求剑”的评级方式,也引起了国际投资机构的关注。摩根大通就明确提出,宣布的资产处置将大大改变万达的财务状况,我们认为这应该更多地减轻监管风险对其业务情况影响持续的担忧;完成资产处置后,该公司的净杠杆水平最低,B股名义流动性最高。
因此,摩根大通也把标普下调万达商业评级的行为概括为“见树不见林”。所以出现“见树不见林”的现象,就是“刻舟求剑”思维所致,就是没有用发展的眼光看问题。
无论是对一个国家还是一个企业,抑或一个行业进行评级,都不能戴着有色眼镜,都不能相当然。尤其在世界经济快速发展,科学技术突飞猛进,全球化水平越来越高的情况下,更需要客观、理性、科学、合理,需要评一步、看三步,需要用发展的眼光、灵活的思维去分析问题、判断趋势,而不是僵化死板、机械教条的“刻舟求剑”思维。
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