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长盛基金李琪:债市配置时机已至

2017-09-25 07:01:53   中国经济网

不确定性减少

债市配置时机已至“今年以来,债券市场大环境不是很理想,不过,对后市尤其是明年的债券市场还是偏乐观的。今年四季度肯定还会有些不确定性的因素,但明年,债市的相对确定性更高,市场会比今年有明显改善,债市配置时机已经到来。”李琪就此向《证券日报》基金新闻部记者道出五点缘由:

一是宏观经济面比较平稳,监管大环境导致资金整体明显上行,融资成本提升增加制造业投资会有下降压力,对债市有利;二是房地产销量回落已经传导到投资,房地产新开工、投资数据均现回落,同样利多债市;三是政府加大了对于地方债务风险的管控,地方政府获取资金的难度在加大;四是货币政策可能趋于放松,至少边际上会放松,对债券市场有利;五是经历了近一年的调整之后,债券市场整体定价已显现,其风险得到极大释放,债券价值正慢慢提升。

当然,债市投资的风险也不容忽视。在李琪看来,宏观经济窄幅波动对债券投资者心理预期有较大影响;当下金融环境是强监管、防风险、去杠杆,政策背景已经确定,交易性机会越来越小,且不会有趋势性机会;三是信用风险,企业的融资环境在变差,特别对于那种民营企业、垃圾债来说,风险仍存;此外,采暖季环保限制政策,对黑色商品价格形成短期冲击,对债券市场同样带来危险。

“投资是一种不完全信息下的决策,讲概率,需要坚持理性策略、控制风险。个人认为,在制定了合理的风险收益目标和投资策略后,需要顺应市场、尊重市场并时刻保持冷静理性。”李琪在采访即将结束时补充说,作为投资者来说,经历了近一年的时间周期调整之后,债券市场的配置价值在提升而不是在削弱,在这个时间点,投资者不应考虑现在是熊市撤出来,而是需要逆向思维积极去配置。

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