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主权财富基金的“十年之惑”

2017-09-24 07:21:51   中国经济网

2005年7月,美国道富银行经济学家Andrew Rozanov(2005)在文章中首次提出了“主权财富基金”这一概念。针对过多的财政盈余与外汇储备盈余,一些国家成立了专门的投资机构来进行管理运作,这类机构可称为“主权财富基金”。

2007年9月29日,中国主权财富基金——中国投资有限责任公司(以下简称“中投”)成立。十年来,中投作为国家主权财富基金在分流外汇储备,拓宽外汇储备投资渠道和提高投资收益等方面进行了积极的探索,投资资产类别涵盖股票、债权、对冲基金、私募股权基金、房地产、基础设施等领域。然而,站在这个颇具意义的时点上回望,在过去十年的探索中也萌生出诸多问题与困惑,更值得进行思考与讨论,如此,未来发展的步伐才能更稳健。

一、战略意图与财务目标之惑

中投成立之初,一些西方国家对中国主权财富基金的战略意图存有疑虑。2008年10月,国际上26家主权财富基金签署了具有共同监管意义的“圣地亚哥原则”。为改善当时不利的舆论环境与投资环境,中投主动参与了这一原则的起草。该原则要求主权财富基金在实现预期的长期资产配置和制定相应的业绩评估标准之后,披露相关信息。这一规则在实际上极大程度地限制了政府干预,禁止了隐藏性战略目的的存在。在这一国际监管框架下,许多主权财富基金变成完全的财务投资者和被动投资者,追求纯粹的财务目标。

对中投来说,实现这一财务目标并不容易。首先,目前绝大多数主权财富基金来自于新兴市场,为了实现财务目标,它们的投资战场则集中于制度成熟且竞争激烈的欧美市场。这相当于“扬短避长”,离开了自己擅长的市场,在不熟悉的市场与别人竞争,又如何能打得出一手好牌呢?同时,中国是全球增长最快的经济体,而出于不得“二次结汇”等多方面原因,中投的投资不得不与中国市场基本隔绝开来,从而丧失了许多优质的投资机会。因此,一方面,在追求财务目标上,中投由于竞争劣势步履维艰;另一方面,在中国经济高速增长的同时,中投却与国家经济增长与产业发展逐渐脱节,走向边缘化。

展望未来,全球主权财富基金仍需要考虑如何融入本国的经济战略,这并非是指涉足军工等敏感性行业,而是应服务于国家的总体经济发展战略,同国家的工业化、城镇化,产业结构转型升级等结合起来。在这一方面,东亚奇迹时期“政府促进论”所提出的模式值得借鉴。即主权财富基金应由政府进行适度的宏观指导,在投资方向规划、投资模式设计等方面适度干预。同时,主权财富基金应结合本土市场,实现价值创造,加强投后管理。这既有助于提高投资业绩,获得确定性回报,促进财务目标的实现,又与国家产业政策的步调相一致,同国家宏观经济的发展相协调,起到相得益彰的作用。

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