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看涨不敢做多?抓“小牛”莫掉车

2017-09-23 07:07:00   中国经济网

三季度将近尾声,海外美联储缩表“靴子”已落地,国内资金面“大考”料将平稳,当前经济基本面对债市也形成一定支撑。不过尽管市场“看多者”众,敢“做多者”并不多,近期10年期国债收益率持续盘整于3.62%上下。展望四季度,“债牛”到底会不会回归?投资者该如何抓住年内的最后一波机会?中国证券报特此邀请中信证券固定收益首席分析师明明和宏信证券固定收益总部研究员臧旻进行讨论。

海外因素短期影响有限

中国证券报:结合美联储、欧央行动态来看,如何解读海外因素对国内债市的影响?

明明:从海外因素看,欧洲和美国经济复苏乏力,欧元走强导致欧洲退出QE信心不足,美国通胀未达目标缺乏加息基础。根据美联储公布的缩表计划以及“预期引导”的调控手段,引起市场巨震的可能性不大。

近期以来,外部环境的变化对国内债市确实存在一定影响。月初债市明显回暖即有海外因素助长的影子。近期全球避险情绪升温,美元指数持续下探、人民币对美元迅速升值,人民币汇率改善有利于资金流入,一方面有助于外汇占款边际回暖,另一方面海外资金流入并配置国内债券,利好国内债市。美国经济复苏仍然存在风险点,美联储加息步伐放缓,中美利差仍将持续高位运行,均是国内债市的利好信号。

臧旻:海外因素对国内债市产生影响主要来源于两个方面,一是汇率和内外利差的变化,对资本跨境流动产生影响,造成外汇占款的变动进而影响国内市场整体流动性;二是全球主要经济体的复苏力度是否出现了转向。

从第一点来看,目前中美长端利差维持在130BP以上的水平,相对较为安全。而人民币汇率在近期也表现较为强势,短期内美联储加息缩表对国内债市的中短期影响极为有限。

另一方面,国内的本轮经济复苏最大贡献来自于海外需求的回暖导致出口对经济增长贡献度的提升,而以美欧为代表的发达经济体能否继续维持复苏格局,对国内基本面的影响较为显著,进而决定着国内债券市场的长期走势。

我们认为,目前全球经济复苏的进程仍然较为乐观,全球整体风险偏好水平也将处于长期抬升的过程中。美联储缩表对国内市场的短期影响可以忽略不计,但从长期来看,全球风险偏好仍然处于上升的趋势中,对国内债市的长期影响难言利好。

基本面提供正向支持

中国证券报:近期,围绕经济“新周期”和“滞胀”的讨论较多,请分析下基本面对债券市场的利多利空因素。

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