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巴曙松:对国际评级机构的评级结果进行再评价

2017-09-23 13:01:57   中国经济网

2009年底,标普、穆迪和惠誉分别下调希腊的主权债务评级。12月8日,惠誉将希腊主权信用级别由A-下调至BBB+;12月16日,标普尔将希腊的长期主权信用评级由A-下调为BBB+;随后于12月22日,穆迪则将希腊短期主权信用级别由A1下调至A2级。连续的主权信用级别下调,短期内明显加剧了希腊的债务压力,使希腊马上面临政府融资成本被抬高的困境,眼看到期的债务无法通过市场再融资来偿付,只好求助于其他官方资金的援助。同时,希腊政府融资成本的上升也明显增加了希腊政府的利息负担,为已经捉襟见肘的财政赤字添加压力。在这种市场困境下,希腊主权债务危机迅速因为国际评级机构的评级调整而在市场上发酵,并产生了连锁效应。2010年4月27日,标准普尔将希腊主权债务评级从BBB+下调至BB+,一次下调三个级别,前景展望为负;同日,标准普尔将葡萄牙主权债务级别从A+下降到A-,一次下调两个级别,前景展望为负;4月28日,标普宣布将西班牙主权债务级别从AA+下降到AA,且前景展望为负面。5月5日,穆迪将葡萄牙主权信用评级列入负面观察名单。6日,穆迪发布报告,认为希腊债务危机可能扩散至欧洲多国银行业,其中葡萄牙、西班牙、爱尔兰和英国将是最易发生危机的几个国家。一时间,整个欧洲风声鹤唳,债务危机阴霾笼罩。正式由于这种恶性循环的连锁反应,使局部的希腊主权债务危机迅速传染和演变为欧洲主权债务危机。从事后评估看,其实当时已经算是欧洲主权债务问题最为严重的时期,连续的主权债务评级降低客观上加剧了市场的盲目恐慌情绪。

二 评级框架相对单一,容易忽视新兴市场的不同市场条件

如果观察标普的一些评级下调的实际事例,可以看到,其对较高的债务增速十分关注。但是,需要注意的是,金融结构的差异,直接会影响到债务的增长速度,在以银行为主导的金融结构中,债务的增长显然是快于以直接融资为主导的经济体的,因此,不考虑金融结构的差异和发展阶段的不同,主要以信贷/GDP缺口作为指标测算信贷风险有明显的评级技术上的偏颇。

同时,在关注信贷增速是否过快、债务负担是否上升等问题,还需要评估政府支出所形成的资产积累,因为这会提升政府的债务偿还能力。而一些与地方政府有一定关联的融资平台公司债务是否应当计入政府债务,还需要考察这些地方政府债务、融资平台债务是否有清晰的边界和法律的界定,如果已经有清晰的界定,那么,盲目计入则显然会导致夸大中央政府的债务规模。

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