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美联储缩表 我国有底气保持货币政策独立性

2017-09-22 07:32:22   中国经济网

值得注意的是,九州证券首席经济学家邓海清向《每日经济新闻》记者指出,美联储缩表仍面临一定的不确定性。最大悬念就在于,2018年2月特朗普提名的新任美联储主席能否执行耶伦的缩表计划。

美国12月加息概率升至七成

值得注意的是,此次美联储将美国2017年的GDP增速预期,由2.2%上调至了2.4%,显示出对美国经济超预期的乐观。耶伦表示,美国就业持续表现强劲,商业投资在近几个季度有所提振,经济活动温和增长。第三季度GDP将受到诸如飓风等的拖累,但飓风因素对全美经济的改变不会超过两个季度。当前商业投资已经回暖,随着全球经济走强,美国出口也已回暖。

此前,部分市场人士猜测此次美联储会下调加息节奏,但美联储最新点阵图则暗示,其内部基本已就年内第三次加息达成一致。而CME的FedWatch工具也显示,美联储12月加息概率已上升至70.5%。分析认为,这是导致美联储政策声明发布后,市场出现剧烈波动的直接原因。而在美元跳涨的影响下,人民币对美元中间价21日下调197个基点。在离岸市场,人民币对美元即期汇率日间一度贬过6.6关口。

“预计人民币汇率短期将继续回调,中期会双向波动。9月11日以来,受逆周期因子调节等影响,人民币对美元汇率升值态势暂缓。美联储缩表和加息交互推进,所带来的‘量缩价升’及信号作用有助于提振美元。”连平认为,强监管趋缓后,市场利率可能冲高回落,中美利差可能收窄,人民币对美元汇率短期可能继续回调。但中国经济运行基本平稳,目前人民币汇率已与经济基本面大体相符,中国跨境资金流动和国际收支趋于平衡,外汇供求基本稳定,监管部门针对外汇和资本流动的宏微观审慎监管持续加强,人民币汇率双向浮动特征明显,贬值预期已明显减弱,未来将呈双向波动态势。

招商银行资产管理部分析师刘东亮、黄薇向《每日经济新闻》记者表示,“此前我们认为美元汇率持续贬值已处在错杀阶段,并未进入弱势周期。随着美联储缩表和加息的推进,预计美元汇率定价将逐步回归利率驱动,美元指数有望由弱转强。”

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