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美联储“缩表”如期而至 对中国有何影响?

2017-09-21 17:12:47   新华网

新华社北京9月21日电 题:美联储“缩表”如期而至 对中国有何影响?

新华社记者 李延霞 吴雨

正如市场预期,美国联邦储备委员会20日宣布将从今年10月份开始缩减总额高达4.5万亿美元的资产负债表,以逐步收紧货币政策。美联储为何要“缩表”?“缩表”会对中国产生什么影响?

“缩表同加息一样,是美联储货币政策正常化进程的必经之路,而选择当前这个时机,主要是因为近期美国通胀持续低迷,加息进程可能放缓,需要缩表来保持货币政策正常化方向,另一方面美联储异常庞大的资产负债表正在推升资产泡沫,危及金融系统稳定。”评级机构东方金诚研究发展部副总经理王青表示。

2008年金融危机之后,美联储将联邦基金利率降至接近零的超低水平,又先后通过三轮量化宽松货币政策购买大量美国国债和机构抵押贷款支持证券,大幅压低长期利率,以促进企业投资和居民消费。美联储资产负债表的规模从危机前的不到1万亿美元膨胀至4.5万亿美元。随着美国经济逐步复苏,货币政策正常化提上日程,自2015年12月以来美联储已经四次加息。

与通过加息直接提高资金成本相比,缩表等于直接从市场抽离基础货币,对流动性的影响较大。由于市场对美联储缩表已有充分预期,总体反应较为温和。决定公布之后,美股道琼斯指数小幅下滑,但此后很快收复失地;美元指数走强,包括人民币在内的非美货币纷纷下跌,黄金价格下跌,多数大宗商品价格攀升。

有分析认为,“缩表”将收紧美元流动性,给美元带来升值压力,新兴市场将面临本币贬值和资金外流等挑战。美联储发布消息后,美元指数从91.66附近跃升至92.6附近。美元走强,非美货币相对走弱,人民币也不例外。21日,人民币对美元汇率早盘在岸和离岸市场一度跌破6.6,随后又收复了这一关口。人民币对美元中间价报6.5867,较前一交易日下跌197个基点。

中金所研究院首席经济学家赵庆明表示,美元瞬间拉升和前期持续下跌有关,美联储的“缩表”消息只是给了美元一个反弹动力,也似乎对人民币有所压力。但放到全球市场看,人民币的反应是适度的。

今年以来,人民币兑美元累计升值6%左右。“伴随国内宏观经济持续回稳向好,市场对人民币资产的回报预期趋于改善,人民币汇率在年内或仍将稳健运行。而现阶段美元指数表现仍主要受制于特朗普政治风险,或将继续走弱。美联储缩表不会对人民币形成明显的外部压力。”王青说。

中长期来看,“缩表”将直接影响美债供需关系,推动美债收益率上升。一旦美国长端利率上升,或许会影响中美利差。中美十年期国债利差有望保持在120至150BP左右,利差保护较为充分,资金大规模外流压力可控。

赵庆明认为,美联储货币政策只是影响美元走势、国际资本流动的因素之一。我国较为充足的外汇储备和有效的资本账户管理可较好抵御外部冲击,也是保持货币政策独立性的“底气”。

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