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美联储宣布“缩表”以收紧货币政策

2017-09-21 07:12:24   中国经济网

9月20日,在美国首都华盛顿,美国联邦储备委员会主席耶伦准备出席新闻发布会。新华社记者 殷博古 摄

新华社华盛顿9月20日电(记者金旼旼 江宇娟)美国联邦储备委员会(美联储)20日宣布,将从今年10月开始缩减总额高达4.5万亿美元的资产负债表(“缩表”),以逐步收紧货币政策。

同时,美联储宣布维持目前1%至1.25%的联邦基金利率目标区间不变。自2015年12月启动金融危机后首次加息以来,美联储已累计加息4次共100个基点。今年来,美联储分别在3月和6月两次加息。

根据美联储当天发布的报告,今年内美联储很可能还将加息一次,明年还将再加息3次。

所谓“缩表”,是指美联储缩减自身资产负债表规模,这将推升长期利率,提高企业融资成本,从而令美国金融环境收紧。可以说,“缩表”和加息一样,都是收紧货币政策的一种政策工具。

2008年金融危机后,美联储不仅将联邦基金利率降至接近零的超低水平,又先后通过3轮量化宽松货币政策购买大量美国国债和机构抵押贷款支持证券,大幅压低长期利率,以促进企业投资和居民消费,刺激美国经济复苏。美联储资产负债表的规模也从危机前的不到1万亿美元膨胀至目前的约4.5万亿美元。

随着美国经济回到稳步复苏轨道,美联储的超宽松货币政策也将逐步回归常态,除了加息之外,美联储资产负债表也要收缩到相对正常水平。经济学家警告,长期过度宽松的货币政策会导致美国经济过热、金融风险升高,还可能加大资产泡沫和通胀飙升风险。

按照计划,美联储主要通过逐步减少对到期证券本金再投资来被动收缩资产负债表,并不主动出售目前持有的国债和抵押贷款支持证券。因此,分析人士普遍认为,“缩表”步伐相对缓慢和可预期。同时,由于美联储最终仍将维持高于危机前水平的较大资产负债表规模,预计“缩表”对金融市场的影响将较为温和可控。

今年以来,美联储持续就加息和“缩表”与市场沟通,这令市场提前消化了美国货币政策变动带来的影响。在美联储当天宣布决策前后,纽约股市波动幅度不大。

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