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航空股Q3业绩可期

2017-09-15 20:26:51   中国经济网

航空公司在采购和维修方面一般都有大量的美元负债,如东方航空上半年外币带息债务总额折合人民币为535.73亿元,其中美元负债占全部外币带息负债的83.09%;中国国航上半年外币带息债务总额折合人民币为958.04亿元 其中美元带息债务为425.77亿元,占比为44.44%

人民币对美元的升值会给持有大量美元负债的航空公司带来可观的收益。上半年,南航、国航和东航三大航空公司分别实现汇兑收益5.6亿元、12.7亿元和13.6亿元,而上年同期分别为-15.1亿元、-17.0亿元和-13.6亿元,汇兑收益的爆发式增长极大降低了公司的财务费用。中国国航、南方航空和东方航空上半年的财务费用同比分别减少90.47%、69.61%和72.13%。

燃油成本成“利润杀手”

既然上半年6家航空运输上市公司的营收同比都实现了正增长,并且出现了多重利好,为何5家上市公司归母净利润出现负增长?根据上市公司半年报,燃油成本的急剧上升或许是造成增收不增利的“罪魁祸首”。

航油成本是民航公司最主要的成本。上半年,航油价格较上年同期增长。2017年,布伦特原油均价51.98美元,上年同期均价41.68美元,同比增长24.7%。其中第一季度同比增长52%,第二季度同比增长8.2%。

上半年,中国国航实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为33.26亿元,同比下降3.79%,主要原因就是燃油成本的急遽上涨。公司的燃油成本为136.29亿元,比上年同期上涨40.11%。

南方航空上半年实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为27.68亿元,同比下降 11.54%。公司航油成本为人民币154.02亿元,比上年同期上升50.13%。

就连上半年归母净利润实现增长的东方航空也受到油价上涨的拖累。上半年,东航实现归母净利润43.47亿元,同比增长34.46%;飞机燃油成本为人民币121.39亿元,同比增长了45.15%。

从这个角度来讲,东方航空并没有脱离行业运行发展的轨迹,公司之所以在上半年实现归母净利润增长,据华泰证券分析,是因为东航二季度票价超预期、中联航业业绩超预期、成本控制超预期。

40%至50%的燃油成本上升对公司营收产生的影响是巨大的,三大航燃油成本的增幅远远大于营收和净利润。

当然,另外3家上市公司也逃脱不了燃油成本上涨带来的影响。吉祥航空上半年航油成本为14.01亿元,占营业成本的比重为29.57%;海航2017年上半年航油成本占营业成本的28.40%;春秋航空上半年航油成本同比上涨了36.2%,导致营业总成本增至46亿元,同比增长42.94%。

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