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市场主线未变 “真成长”料继续发力

2017-09-13 07:56:33   中国经济网

针对后市,中金公司表示,在经历了“资金抱团价值蓝筹,更多资金加仓入场,风险偏好稳步提升”所带来的“权重突破,整体回暖,弱势补涨”等阶段后,市场整体的获利了结行为有所增加,短线整固压力有待释放。投资者可静待下阶段市场一致认可的投资主线逐渐清晰后,重新调整持仓,继续拥抱中期趋势。

把握供给侧改革主线

近期市场走势相当微妙。一方面,上证综指突破3300点后,各方资金始终缺乏对上冲3400点的一致共识,盘面上存量博弈的特征十分明显。另一方面,由于迟迟不见增量资金入场的信号,市场信心开始趋弱,主力资金也连续多日呈现净流出的态势。而与之相对应的则是沪深两融余额连续上破多个整数关口,不断刷新阶段高点,截至9月11日,两融余额规模已突破9700亿元大关,达到9737.17亿元。在这种乐观与悲观交织的气氛中,多数投资者都因没有“踏准”今年的节奏而进入了观望的行列。

长江证券表示,今年对于投资者而言可以说是结构机会突出、阶段主线较为清晰的一年。然而,当一些投资者纠结于是不是“牛市”已经来了时,该机构却在数据上看到了今年非常有趣、或异于大部分投资者预期的结构现象。即剔除行业影响后,年初至今,具有波动率低、低估值和强者恒强特质的个股的收益要远高于超跌反弹与小市值的个股,这就意味着即使选对行业,个股属性选择错误同样难获较高收益。

分析人士认为,正是未能领悟本轮行情反弹的主要逻辑,多数投资者在标的选择上的偏差,导致在本轮行情中未能获得理想收益。针对本轮行情反弹的主要逻辑,中信证券市场研究部首席市场策略师刘斌用“供给侧改革”5个字做出了回答。刘斌表示,通过实地走访和数据分析,“三去一降一补”及时扭转了经济下滑的趋势和风险的急剧攀升,解决了经济的当务之急,为未来制度改革和创新“治本”,腾挪了宝贵空间。而当下“治标”已取得阶段性胜利,经济中期的“L”底基本确立。可以发现从本轮行情回升以来供给侧改革这条主线始终贯穿其中,在这一背景下,由于供给侧改革的不断深化,市场陆续观察并开始挖掘国企改革落地以及消费升级和产业升级方面的投资机会。毫无疑问供给侧改革后市仍将是推动市场向上的唯一一条主要逻辑。

而在供给侧改革持续推进的前提之下,平安证券表示,当前市场的预期正在悄然发生改变。市场对于宏观政策的着力点料将从供给侧改革逐渐转向新兴产业政策。一方面供给侧改革已经取得一定的实质性效果,另一方面新兴产业和高端制造仍是国家产业政策的主要方向,在新能源汽车、互联网、人工智能、生物基因等领域未来是全球竞争的主要领域。而由于上述预期的改变,该机构认为市场成长板块做多的机会也将随之显著增加。

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