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高位整固 港股中期向上趋势未变

2017-09-11 07:42:41   中国经济网

恒指过去一周沿着10天及20天两条平均线反复波动,下方27500点附近呈现一定支撑力度,暂未有明确方向。但是,无论是从周K线还是月K线来看,恒指“一浪高于一浪”的中期反复上升态势未变,操作策略上仍以逢低部署好仓为主。

外围市场方面,上周美股继续整固格局,投资者情绪偏谨慎。虽然特朗普政府就债务上限问题跟国会达成共识,一度给市场带来支持,但是地缘问题及美元指数持续走低,仍令市场承受较大压力。内地A股方面,过去一周走势先升后回,沪指临近3400点附近遇阻力,大市欠缺利好刺激,高位获利回吐需求略有升温。不过A股整体市况仍较正面,尤其是人民币汇率持续走强,带来乐观预期。

港股高位窄幅整理,板块方面走势分化。近段时间金融股、科技股未见表现,地产股板块反而独撑大市。不过由于外围市况牛皮,港股炒业绩行情落幕,短期缺乏热点刺激,本月美联储议息临近,大市难免欠缺明确方向。上周港股日均成交略有回落,仅一个交易日超越千亿港元规模。衍生市场交投持续活跃,上周认股证日均成交约130亿港元,牛熊证成交约50亿港元,按周计算变动不大。

恒指牛熊证资金流方面,上周一至周四恒指牛证获得约2400万港元资金净流入,同时熊证也得到约2060万港元净流入资金,反映多空争持激烈。街货分布方面,截至上周四,牛证街货集中在收回价27100点至27500点之间,相当约2760张期指合约;至于恒指熊证,街货集中在收回价27900点至28400点之间,相当于约3770张期指合约。

行业资金流数据方面,期内腾讯相关认购证获得约3770万港元资金净流入;其次,平保相关认购证获得约2550万港元资金净流入;另外,中资地产股碧桂园相关认购证也有约2000万港元资金净流入;反观,银河娱乐及吉利汽车相关认购证则分别出现约4140万港元及3970万港元资金净流出套现。

权证引伸波幅方面,指数权证引伸波幅个别发展,以三个月贴价场外期权为例,恒指的引伸波幅上升0.1个波幅点至15.3%,国企指数的引伸波幅上升0.1个波幅点至18.6%;个股板块方面,信息科技股腾讯的引伸波幅下跌约1.6个波幅点;国际银行股汇丰的引伸波幅下跌0.7个波幅点;港交所的引伸波幅下跌0.1个波幅点。

近日大市于高位窄幅整固,而此前持续往上突破,气氛畅旺,曾吸引不少投资者参与权证及牛熊证买卖,有些进取投资者更专门买卖“仙轮”,这些权证均十分短期及深入价外,杠杆与风险皆相当之高。如正股短时间内急升,升近行权价,此类权证表现将相当强劲,回报可观;相反,如正股在较窄的区间内上落震荡,这些权证的时间值损耗严重,理论价格很可能快速地下降至一分以下。投资者需留意,因发行人是不能为价值低于一分的权证开价,换句话说,即当权证价格低于一分时,投资者已经不能再跟发行人购买或沽出该权证。投资者可以做的,就只有长期在一分排出沽盘,奢望市场上会有其他投资者愿意用偏高的价钱去买入这只根本不值一分的权证,或者只能等至权证到期结算,看看是否会有奇迹出现,正股在短时间内大幅攀升并重越权证的行使价而产生价值。

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