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公募基金流动性新规对投资者的影响分析

2017-09-06 06:51:47   中国经济网

新规里面提到了:除了货币基金、ETF基金以外的基金,七天之外的赎回收取至少1.5%的赎回费。

基金投资组合和基金智能投顾、止盈定投后续会受影响:

七天之内的投资、调仓肯定要排除信号,否则投资者就面临1.5%的赎回费。1.5%的赎回费啥概念:10000万块的1.5%就是150块,1万块钱放在货币基金里面得四五个月时间才能赚150块。基金投资组合和基金智能投顾一不小心调仓一次,等于用户连续四五个月每天早上少个鸡蛋。

现在基金有些基金组合和基金智能投顾是两个周调整一次,看似能避免这种影响,但是还面临着用户中途买的份额的处理。

我举个平行世界的例子:某基金智能投顾产品是每个月1号和15日观察信号确定是否调仓,平行世界里面的有钱泥沼1号买了一笔1万元,10号又追加买了一万元,15号时候智能投顾信号确认要进行全仓调整,有钱的泥沼在1号买的产品赎回不受影响,不会收取1.5%的惩罚性赎回费,但是10号追加购买的1万元,如果调整,那么持有期就不到7天,不好意思这1万扣150块钱吧。

后续我个人判断:基金投资组合、基金智能投顾、止盈定投里面不符合规定的陆陆续续都会修改规则。

2、短期波段与基金短期套利难度加大,ETF成为首选,谨慎参与。

今年雄安新区横空出世的时候很多投资者参与了部分持有“雄安新区”概念基金的套利,前几天联通复牌,又有部分投资者参与持有“中国联通”股票的基金的套利。

现在规定了七天之内赎回1.5%,不符合这个规定的基金会陆续修改收费,很多投资者拿着某些免申购、赎回费的基金做波段(比如我之前介绍过的免申购、赎回费的银河定投宝基金519677、博时沪深300C 002385),又比如去参与基金套利,得考虑持有7天是否核算,持有不到7天就直接1.5%赎回费没了,很多时候基金套利也就2-3%的收益,现在扣去1.5%,你就得考虑是否值得了?

ETF因为申赎靠股票来实现,不受七日1.5%赎回费影响,会成为首选,但是大家以后套利时候都首选参与ETF了,会不会很拥挤,会不会套利不成反被套?这都是有可能的。

3、严格规范定增。

新的读者知道我最近写了九泰基金、财通基金的定增的情况,但是我之前也写过泓德泓富基金(001357)的事情:泓德泓富转型,合法侵害普通基金投资者利益。

泓德这个新基金公司当时也大胆,一个开放式基金前十八大重仓股全部是定增股票,根本不能流通,实际流通资产不足总资产的40%,流动性存在明显问题,泓德基金就推动基金转型,从开放式基金转型成封闭式基金。

现在证监会直接出新规定了,持有流动性受限制资产不得超过15%,泓德泓富基金当时可是五六成资产不能流通,流动性非常成问题。泓德泓富这事肯定不能发生了,但是吧,现在想想,当时有点可怕。我反正不知道泓德基金怎样想的,冒天下之大不韪,一点不考虑流动性,你基金公司不能光想着赚钱,不考虑风险。

新规定会在今年10月1日开始施行,证监会给了6个月的过渡期,还是很人性的。我个人认为我们投资者在新规实施后,影响不大。

本文首发于微信公众号:投基摸狗。文章内容属作者个人观点,不代表和讯网立场。投资者据此操作,风险请自担。

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