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北大林毅夫团队回应:“吉林药方”有理有据

2017-08-28 07:22:00   中国经济网

这样的成功案例同样也可以发生在东北的辽宁省,例如从福建晋江等地转移去的辽宁省葫芦岛泳装产业集群(目前世界上每卖出三件泳装就有一件产自葫芦岛)。当然,庞大的轻加工业产业远不止服装纺织业,这里仅仅举这一个例子而已。

即便是符合潜在比较优势的产业,要变成有竞争力的产业,还需要有为政府协助企业改善软硬基础设施降低交易成本。例如,同样根据我们课题组运用最近的省际投入产出表数据所做的测算显示,就纺织品而言,“电力、热力的生产和供应”以及“交通运输、仓储和邮政”这两项中间品投入,吉林省分别是浙江省的1.39倍、1.96倍。然而,单个企业是无法自己去有效改善电力与运输这些基础设施的。

东北地区各级政府需要发挥积极有为的作用,大力改善这些软硬基础设施降低企业成本。据我们调研所知,吉林省还有不少富裕的能源与窝电,地方政府其实可以针对这些潜在比较优势的产业,采取各种措施包括能源补贴以降低企业成本。

●从禀赋结构分析吉林比较优势

NBD:孙建波认为,对东北经济的分析不能像分析一个国家的经济那样来做诊断。国家产业结构相对健全,不会受制于人。而东北则是一个地区,地区需要明确分工,发展优势产业。对此,您作何回应?

付才辉:首先,东北地区目前人口超过一亿,而全世界人口超过一亿的国家也只有十来个。吉林省2015年末有2700多万人口、其中16~59岁的适龄劳动人口占68.65%、农村人口占比44.03%,人均GDP为54266元,略高于全国的平均水平53980元。目前吉林省的经济体量与新西兰旗鼓相当,但人均收入水平只与非洲的加蓬相当。吉林省差不多本身就是一个体量较大的发展中经济体或地区,这是一个基本事实,而不是应该不应该作为一个大的经济体来诊断的问题。

其次,区域之间的产业分工主要是由什么决定的?再重申一下,孙建波的思维方式是从现有产业出发,而我们是从禀赋结构出发——这是新结构经济学分析问题的出发点。在市场经济条件下,一个地区长期的产业分工格局主要是由其禀赋结构所决定,并且随着禀赋结构的变迁而变迁,当然还受到其他因素的影响。这就是为什么现在长三角和珠三角等地区也要转型升级进行腾笼换鸟的原因。

再次,如果从禀赋结构出发,如何看待吉林省的比较优势呢?

概括地讲,受益于东北平原的自然禀赋条件,吉林省在耕地与动植物资源禀赋方面有得天独厚的比较优势,造就了其农牧业及其农产品加工业以及以中药为主体的医药行业成为吉林省产业结构中首当其冲的长板产业;受益于吉林省历史遗产积累的重化工业基础,造就了其汽车产业、石化能源及其装备制造业成为吉林省产业结构中支柱性的工业长板产业;得益于吉林省良好的生态环境以及较高的人力资本与科技实力,造就了其健康、文旅与创意以及研发产业成为吉林省产业结构中支柱性的(消费性和生产性)服务业长板产业。

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