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“金贵油贱”时代到来? QDII基金业绩“变脸”

2017-08-24 07:01:47   中国经济网

虽然下半年以来QDII基金收益出现下滑,但纵观全年表现,QDII基金整体业绩依然优于其他各类型基金。数据显示,可统计的201只QDII基金今年以来平均上涨8.98%,交银中证海外中国互联网指数、嘉实全球互联网股票、华宝兴业海外中国混合三只基金今年以来涨幅均超40%,共28只QDII基金涨幅超20%,而跌幅超10%的QDII基金无一例外全部为油气主题QDII和大宗商品主题QDII。

海外资产配置依然不可或缺 黄金仍具配置价值

全球资产配置时代已经来临,未来资产组合多元化必将成为主流,且随着市场不断开放,国内投资者的投资选择也更多。而目前国内投资者的选择不多,投资品种相对匮乏,也造成了投资者收益频繁波动,多元化配置美股、港股、海外债券、黄金和FOF基金等资产可以抚平收益波动。

对于上文黄金主题基金,国泰基金认为,未来左右黄金价格主要有以下三方面因素:其一,若欧美过格经济增长(就业数据)或通货膨胀超过各国央行预期,可能会加快他们的升息节奏或提前开始收缩央行资产负债表;其次,其他地区的地缘政治风险将在短期为金价提供上升动力;最后,特朗普政府减税刺激新政的实施进程,若新政推进继续受到重重阻力,那么黄金仍将具备一定的配置吸引力。

博时黄金ETF基金经理王祥认为,无论是之前的朝核问题还是之后美联储意外鸽派调整政策节奏的预期都有效打压了美债利率,并为黄金带来提振。但受避险属性提振的黄金市场后续表现的稳定性相对不足,目前位置或保持适当谨慎为宜。

对于油气主题基金,博时基金魏凤春认为,原油市场随着美国库存持续去化、产量增速放缓的利好助推上行,但OPEC内部分歧加大、产量回升和减产执行率下降使得短期内原油供给过剩的担忧仍在。金融端期货贴水的现象已经出现,市场将其解读为原油供需偏紧的信号,短期对油价或有所支撑。

自去年以来,沪港深主题基金和港股QDII备受市场关注,上投摩根基金认为,恒指自上周以来的整固震荡应属正常的升后消化,只是由于恒指已处年内高位,市场情绪会稍偏保守。然而,影响港股牛市的核心因素仍未改变。从估值因素上看,虽然港股前期涨幅突出,但是估值依然不贵,而全球横向比较,港股仍是洼地,低估值核心优势不变。港股市场将持续震荡向上的观点,震荡仅是牛市中途的休整,市场在进行阶段性整固后仍有机会挑战年内高位。建议投资人依据风险偏好,分批布局。

房地产主题基金今年整体表现不佳,鹏华基金认为,美国经济基本面已开始好转,加上每年有100万左右的移民,对房地产有稳定的需求,且新增供应相对有限,供应相对紧缺,未来住房空置率也将逐步下降,预计未来几年美国房地产市场将随着美国经济的复苏而继续回暖。

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