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财经观察:“美国优先”成重谈北美自贸协定最大绊脚石

2017-08-18 16:15:16   新华网

不过,这一生效已23年的自贸协定的确需要更新,尤其是要纳入电子商务、数字经济、服务贸易、知识产权、劳工保护、环保标准等新内容,以符合经贸发展趋势。

因此,在加拿大和墨西哥看来,这次谈判的目的是在不改变基本架构的前提下,更新升级这一自贸协定。但这种技术性的更新升级显然难令美国满意。在美国看来,重谈就是要推倒重来,根本性地改变此前的自贸安排来强调美国利益。

从美方的谈判诉求来看,无论是在原产地规则中要求提高采购美国零部件比例,要求废除争端解决机制以避免加墨两国凭借该机制反制美国贸易保护措施,还是强化“买美国货”政策,都反映出美国希望深刻改变现行贸易规则,重新进行利益分配。

 谈判能否如期完成

考虑到墨西哥和美国明年将分别举行总统选举和国会中期选举,两国均表示希望在明年年初之前完成北美自贸协定重谈进程。

对于谈判前景,彼得森国际经济研究所名誉所长弗雷德·博格斯滕并不看好,因为美国设定了降低贸易逆差这一“不可能完成的”任务。他说:“墨西哥原本就是贸易逆差国,美国为降低自身逆差,要求墨西哥进一步提高贸易逆差,这几乎不可能实现。”

彼得森国际经济研究所高级研究员杰弗里·肖特认为,鉴于重谈北美自贸协定的议程广泛、敏感议题分歧较大以及明年墨西哥和美国选举因素的影响,整个谈判进程很可能会拖延至2019年。

特朗普政府试图将“美国优先”理念带入谈判,但具有高度政治敏感性的自贸谈判不可能只偏向于一国。美国越是在谈判中强调“美国优先”,就越可能导致墨西哥和加拿大因面临巨大国内政治压力而拒绝妥协。

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